Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 8 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-31?

8 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 37¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 31

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$23.43

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 36.5¢

-35% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 19 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares10,380

Combined PnL-$87.18

No11 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,706

Combined PnL+$110.61

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 44¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$38.08	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
└ No leg	Noavg 44¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$62.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$100.54
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Yesavg 58¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$50	32% 729-1552 (2281)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$510.16	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56¢	$2.1K	$1.3K	-$715.7
└ No leg	Noavg 43.6¢	$448.83	$654.37	+$205.54
Reformedx	Noavg 42¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$75	52% 825-774 (1599)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Yesavg 55¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.1	73% 3585-1319 (4904)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Yesavg 58¢	$986	$969	-$17	54% 4884-4115 (8999)
CA Cannae	Noavg 43.7¢	$397.9	$405.11	+$7.21	53% 15955-14130 (30085)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Noavg 45¢	$340.29	$364.98	-$14.35	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
└ No leg	Noavg 45¢	$290.4	$277.5	-$17.21
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55.1¢	$84.62	$87.48	+$2.86
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 57.4¢	$325.74	$314.9	-$10.84	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 39.9¢	$297.99	$279.81	-$18.18	49% 19161-19553 (38714)
US user921123	Noavg 62¢	$166.7	$168.04	+$1.34	59% 961-659 (1620)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 59¢	$112.15	$118.24	+$6.1	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 44¢	$101.46	$100.68	-$0.78	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
└ No leg	Noavg 44¢	$66	$66.75	+$0.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58¢	$35.46	$33.93	-$1.53
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 44¢	$53.96	$77.95	+$23.99	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 57.1¢	$74.99	$72.9	-$2.09	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
oieshfn345<$100	Noavg 57.9¢	$48.47	$53.19	+$4.72	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 45¢	$23.38	$23.64	+$0.26	62% 13707-8571 (22278)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 58¢	$29.38	$23.05	-$6.33	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Noavg 45¢	$13.95	$13.17	-$0.78	54% 2988-2575 (5563)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$5.6	$5.55	-$0.05	51% 1446-1390 (2836)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.78	-$0.13	48% 2393-2622 (5015)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.1	$2.28	-$0.83	54% 6279-5320 (11599)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.15	-$0.08	50% 24920-24613 (49533)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$3,716.6

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$38.08

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

Both legs:

No$1,894.4744¢+$62.46

Yes$1,822.1357.7¢-$100.54

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,900

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$50

Record

32%

729-1552 (2281)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,504.17

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$510.16

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

Both legs:

Yes$2,055.3456¢-$715.7

No$448.8343.6¢+$205.54

Reformedx

Invested

$1,260

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$75

Record

52%

825-774 (1599)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,220.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.1

Record

73%

3585-1319 (4904)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Yes

Invested

$986

Value

$969

PnL

-$17

Record

54%

4884-4115 (8999)

Cannae

Invested

$397.9

Value

$405.11

PnL

+$7.21

Record

53%

15955-14130 (30085)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Invested

$340.29

Value

$364.98

PnL

-$14.35

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

Both legs:

Invested

$325.74

Value

$314.9

PnL

-$10.84

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$297.99

Value

$279.81

PnL

-$18.18

Record

49%

19161-19553 (38714)

user921123

Invested

$166.7

Value

$168.04

PnL

+$1.34

Record

59%

961-659 (1620)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$112.15

Value

$118.24

PnL

+$6.1

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$101.46

Value

$100.68

PnL

-$0.78

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

Both legs:

No$6644¢+$0.75

Yes$35.4658¢-$1.53

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$53.96

Value

$77.95

PnL

+$23.99

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.99

Value

$72.9

PnL

-$2.09

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

oieshfn345<$100

Invested

$48.47

Value

$53.19

PnL

+$4.72

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$23.38

Value

$23.64

PnL

+$0.26

Record

62%

13707-8571 (22278)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$29.38

Value

$23.05

PnL

-$6.33

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Invested

$13.95

Value

$13.17

PnL

-$0.78

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1446-1390 (2836)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.83

Record

54%

6279-5320 (11599)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

24920-24613 (49533)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 19 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.