FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$1.9K
-$87.05
87.4¢ → 83¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 89.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$65.49 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR | Overavg 22¢ | $634.37 | $490.19 | -$144.17 | 32% 729-1552 (2281) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 78¢ | $95.16 | $101.26 | +$6.1 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 92.3¢ | $101.53 | $95.81 | -$5.72 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
SA Saber-greed<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $82.14 | $94.69 | +$12.55 | 59% 2556-1783 (4339) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 21.5¢ | $54.81 | $44.91 | -$9.9 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $33.15 | $20.13 | -$13.02 | 55% 2909-2340 (5249) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 86.2¢ | $17.86 | $19.49 | +$1.63 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
Invested
$1,015.02
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$65.49
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$634.37
Value
$490.19
PnL
-$144.17
Record
32%
729-1552 (2281)
Invested
$95.16
Value
$101.26
PnL
+$6.1
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$101.53
Value
$95.81
PnL
-$5.72
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$82.14
Value
$94.69
PnL
+$12.55
Record
59%
2556-1783 (4339)
Invested
$54.81
Value
$44.91
PnL
-$9.9
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Invested
$33.15
Value
$20.13
PnL
-$13.02
Record
55%
2909-2340 (5249)
RN1<$100Invested
$17.86
Value
$19.49
PnL
+$1.63
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.