FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (54%) · Over at 62¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Over62¢Under38¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

39.2¢ → 62¢

+58% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over62%

Under38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,762

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,194

Combined PnL+$350.46

Over — 54%Under — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Overavg 39.5¢	$2.4K	$3.8K	+$1.4K	32% 729-1552 (2281)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 74.1¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$228.19	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
RN1CTR	Underavg 50¢	$177.78	$273.85	+$96.07	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 58.7¢	$161.52	$201.29	+$39.77	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.7¢	$132.04	$159.75	+$27.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 44¢	$29.48	$41.54	+$12.06
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538	Overavg 44¢	$110	$155	+$45	68% 1460-697 (2157)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 63.5¢	$67.04	$74.93	+$7.89	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
AN Anon455<$100	Overavg 23¢	$57.5	$57.5	+$0	55% 2909-2340 (5249)
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$30.63	$44.39	+$13.75	59% 2556-1783 (4339)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 62¢	$47.04	$35.56	-$11.48	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 68.1¢	$13.11	$16.94	+$3.83	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 61¢	$6.55	$6.66	+$0.11	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 41¢	$4.1	$6.2	+$0.05	48% 2396-2627 (5023)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 15.6¢	$3.93	$5.81	+$1.87	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Underavg 59¢	$3.54	$4.26	+$0.72	54% 4886-4115 (9001)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Over

Invested

$2,432.5

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

32%

729-1552 (2281)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,219.71

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$228.19

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$177.78

Value

$273.85

PnL

+$96.07

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$161.52

Value

$201.29

PnL

+$39.77

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

Both legs:

Under$132.0458.7¢+$27.71

Over$29.4844¢+$12.06

0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538

Over

Invested

$110

Value

$155

PnL

+$45

Record

68%

1460-697 (2157)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.04

Value

$74.93

PnL

+$7.89

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Anon455<$100

Over

Invested

$57.5

Value

$57.5

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

2909-2340 (5249)

Saber-greedCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.63

Value

$44.39

PnL

+$13.75

Record

59%

2556-1783 (4339)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$47.04

Value

$35.56

PnL

-$11.48

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.11

Value

$16.94

PnL

+$3.83

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$6.55

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$0.11

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$4.1

Value

$6.2

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$3.93

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$1.87

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.54

Value

$4.26

PnL

+$0.72

Record

54%

4886-4115 (9001)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.