FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 61¢ · $350 held · ends Oct 31

Over61¢Under39¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$350.03

Combined PnL

-$8.92

Research grade

NeutralOver at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$152.5

Total Shares250

Combined PnL-$12.5

Under3 traders

Total Value$39.65

Total Shares94

Combined PnL+$3.58

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA CannaeARB<$100	Underavg 34¢	$148.18	$157.89	+$12.25	53% 15954-14130 (30084)
└ Under leg	Underavg 34¢	$101.01	$112.89	+$11.88
└ Over leg	Overavg 65¢	$47.17	$44.99	+$0.36
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538	Overavg 66¢	$165	$152.5	-$12.5	68% 1460-697 (2157)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 35.1¢	$27.28	$30.35	+$3.07	50% 33395-32964 (66359)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$6.5	$6.95	+$0.45	48% 2389-2622 (5011)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$2.29	$2.35	+$0.06	53% 4616-4152 (8768)

CannaeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$148.18

Value

$157.89

PnL

+$12.25

Record

53%

15954-14130 (30084)

Both legs:

Under$101.0134¢+$11.88

Over$47.1765¢+$0.36

0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538

Over

Invested

$165

Value

$152.5

PnL

-$12.5

Record

68%

1460-697 (2157)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.28

Value

$30.35

PnL

+$3.07

Record

50%

33395-32964 (66359)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.95

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.29

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.