Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FC Augsburg (60%) · FC Augsburg at 91¢ · $566 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
FC Augsburg
5
FC Augsburg 60%
$565.86
$7.78
94¢ → 90.7¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFC Augsburg at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on FC Augsburg. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | FC Augsburgavg 95¢ | $276.98 | $303.1 | +$26.12 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
UP UpTheBlues | FC Augsburgavg 96.7¢ | $193.58 | $181.48 | -$12.1 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
FO foooool<$100 | FC Augsburgavg 81¢ | $50.22 | $59.4 | +$9.18 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | SC Freiburgavg 6¢ | $15 | $15 | +$0 | 55% 2909-2340 (5249) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | SC Freiburgavg 20.5¢ | $23.45 | $6.88 | -$15.42 | 53% 15956-14132 (30088) |
Invested
$276.98
Value
$303.1
PnL
+$26.12
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Invested
$193.58
Value
$181.48
PnL
-$12.1
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$50.22
Value
$59.4
PnL
+$9.18
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Invested
$15
Value
$15
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
2909-2340 (5249)
Invested
$23.45
Value
$6.88
PnL
-$15.42
Record
53%
15956-14132 (30088)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.