Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 60¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.5K
$28.09
57.3¢ → 59.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MY myxi | Noavg 58¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$0 | 68% 368-174 (542) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 55.4¢ | $589.07 | $617 | +$27.94 | 74% 6672-2394 (9066) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $113.93 | $113.93 | +$0 | 65% 1707-928 (2635) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $59.94 | $59.94 | +$0 | 53% 15954-14130 (30084) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $5.6 | $5.8 | +$0.15 | 48% 2389-2622 (5011) |
Invested
$1,742.32
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
368-174 (542)
Invested
$589.07
Value
$617
PnL
+$27.94
Record
74%
6672-2394 (9066)
Invested
$113.93
Value
$113.93
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
1707-928 (2635)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15954-14130 (30084)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$5.8
PnL
+$0.15
Record
48%
2389-2622 (5011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.