Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 0.1¢ · $691 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 56%
$690.83
-$745.49
35.5¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 66¢ | $297.01 | $299.13 | -$6.7 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
FO foooool | Yesavg 63.2¢ | $238.69 | $206.15 | -$32.53 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 32.1¢ | $111.87 | $113.16 | +$1.29 | 53% 15955-14130 (30085) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 36.2¢ | $765.42 | $55.85 | -$709.57 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $6.9 | $7.21 | +$0.31 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.1¢ | $3.65 | $4.46 | +$0.81 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $1.94 | $1.93 | -$0.01 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $0.95 | $1.85 | +$0.9 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $1.06 | $1.09 | +$0.02 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
0xheavy888Invested
$297.01
Value
$299.13
PnL
-$6.7
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$238.69
Value
$206.15
PnL
-$32.53
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Invested
$111.87
Value
$113.16
PnL
+$1.29
Record
53%
15955-14130 (30085)
Invested
$765.42
Value
$55.85
PnL
-$709.57
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$7.21
PnL
+$0.31
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.65
Value
$4.46
PnL
+$0.81
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$1.94
Value
$1.93
PnL
-$0.01
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Invested
$0.95
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0.9
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Invested
$1.06
Value
$1.09
PnL
+$0.02
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.