Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-10-31?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 68¢ · $20K held · ends Oct 31

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

$39.58

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 67.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares25,721

Combined PnL+$128.66

No8 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares17,768

Combined PnL-$89.09

Yes — 11%No — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradonaCTR	Yesavg 32¢	$8.2K	$8.4K	+$128.66	— 9-5 (14)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 68¢	$6.8K	$6.8K	-$50	47% 2498-2799 (5297)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 68¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$20	53% 5621-4966 (10587)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 68¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$13.57	74% 6661-2381 (9042)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 68¢	$343.35	$339.88	-$2.47	58% 41809-30357 (72166)
CA Cannae	Noavg 68¢	$195.19	$193.75	-$1.44	53% 15940-14117 (30057)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 68¢	$136	$135	-$1	54% 4878-4108 (8986)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 68¢	$22.44	$22.28	-$0.16	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 69¢	$20.7	$20.25	-$0.45	48% 2366-2607 (4973)

hovistomaradonaCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,230.71

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$128.66

Record

—

9-5 (14)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$6,800

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$50

Record

47%

2498-2799 (5297)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,720

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$20

Record

53%

5621-4966 (10587)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$1,845.52

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$13.57

Record

74%

6661-2381 (9042)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$343.35

Value

$339.88

PnL

-$2.47

Record

58%

41809-30357 (72166)

Cannae

Invested

$195.19

Value

$193.75

PnL

-$1.44

Record

53%

15940-14117 (30057)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$136

Value

$135

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

4878-4108 (8986)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$22.44

Value

$22.28

PnL

-$0.16

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$20.7

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$0.45

Record

48%

2366-2607 (4973)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.