Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
PFC CSKA Sofia vs. PFC Slavia Sofia: O/U 2.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 45¢ · $486 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 38%
$486.26
-$56.95
60.8¢ → 44.5¢
-27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 60¢ | $224.76 | $232.25 | +$7.49 | 50% 25153-24879 (50032) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 37¢ | $105.67 | $86.5 | +$2.99 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 61.7¢ | $143.92 | $78.16 | -$65.76 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $33.67 | $34.58 | +$0.91 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
HY hydra1248CTR<$100 | Overavg 63¢ | $33.03 | $32.5 | -$0.52 | — 1-0 (1) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $9.13 | $9.38 | +$0.25 | 49% 12659-13060 (25719) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 32.6¢ | $7.22 | $7.84 | +$0.62 | 53% 4726-4250 (8976) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $7.98 | $5.05 | -$2.93 | 50% 33443-33004 (66447) |
Invested
$224.76
Value
$232.25
PnL
+$7.49
Record
50%
25153-24879 (50032)
VeryLucky888Invested
$105.67
Value
$86.5
PnL
+$2.99
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
Invested
$143.92
Value
$78.16
PnL
-$65.76
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
Invested
$33.67
Value
$34.58
PnL
+$0.91
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
Invested
$33.03
Value
$32.5
PnL
-$0.52
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$9.13
Value
$9.38
PnL
+$0.25
Record
49%
12659-13060 (25719)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.22
Value
$7.84
PnL
+$0.62
Record
53%
4726-4250 (8976)
Invested
$7.98
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$2.93
Record
50%
33443-33004 (66447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.