Will Botev Plovdiv win on 2026-10-30?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 65¢ · $525 held · ended Oct 30

Yes65¢No35¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$524.79

Combined PnL

$9.69

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 64.5¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$498.35

Total Shares824

Combined PnL+$10.14

No1 trader

Total Value$26.43

Total Shares45

Combined PnL-$0.45

Yes — 86%No — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 92¢	$258.97	$270.05	+$11.08	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 40.5¢	$175.22	$157.9	+$2.12	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$51.6	$52.89	+$1.29	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$26.88	$26.43	-$0.45	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$12.88	$9.33	-$3.54	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$6.4	$6.45	+$0.05	54% 6194-5243 (11437)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$2.58	$1.72	-$0.86	52% 4004-3650 (7654)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$258.97

Value

$270.05

PnL

+$11.08

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$175.22

Value

$157.9

PnL

+$2.12

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.6

Value

$52.89

PnL

+$1.29

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$26.88

Value

$26.43

PnL

-$0.45

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.88

Value

$9.33

PnL

-$3.54

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.58

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$0.86

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.