Will PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 99¢ · $534 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$534.16
$55.36
74¢ → 98.6¢
+33% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 72.2¢ | $303.3 | $374.2 | +$58.65 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 28.2¢ | $87.63 | $85.08 | -$2.55 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 28.2¢ | $46.59 | $42.9 | -$3.69 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 72¢ | $41.04 | $42.18 | +$1.14 | |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Yesavg 81¢ | $55.4 | $50.61 | -$4.79 | 59% 30467-21185 (51652) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 90.9¢ | $11.8 | $12.96 | +$1.16 | 50% 33395-32964 (66359) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 69.8¢ | $10.97 | $11.31 | +$0.34 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$303.3
Value
$374.2
PnL
+$58.65
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
Invested
$87.63
Value
$85.08
PnL
-$2.55
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.4
Value
$50.61
PnL
-$4.79
Record
59%
30467-21185 (51652)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$12.96
PnL
+$1.16
Record
50%
33395-32964 (66359)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.97
Value
$11.31
PnL
+$0.34
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.