Will FC Dunav Ruse win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$2.5K
-$1.24
94.4¢ → 97.7¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$47.54 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 96¢ | $410.84 | $367.43 | -$43.41 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 93¢ | $332.14 | $337.5 | +$5.36 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 93.5¢ | $339.3 | $328.52 | -$10.78 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $1.49 | $1.51 | +$0.02 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $0.25 | $0.28 | +$0.03 | 54% 6279-5320 (11599) |
Invested
$1,450.11
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$47.54
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Invested
$410.84
Value
$367.43
PnL
-$43.41
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$332.14
Value
$337.5
PnL
+$5.36
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$339.3
Value
$328.52
PnL
-$10.78
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.49
Value
$1.51
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.28
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
6279-5320 (11599)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.