Will FK Septemvri Sofia win on 2026-10-27?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $882 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$881.53
$46.87
94¢ → 98¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MY myxi | Noavg 94¢ | $834.53 | $870.04 | +$46.61 | 68% 313-148 (461) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $11.07 | $11.27 | +$0.37 | 54% 2570-2206 (4776) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.33 | $0.22 | -$0.11 | 50% 32583-32122 (64705) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.