Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will PFC Cherno More Varna win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 24¢ · $597 held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 43%
$596.55
-$151.86
47.4¢ → 24¢
-49% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 49.4¢ | $209.1 | $169.08 | -$40.02 | 59% 44247-30614 (74861) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 54.7¢ | $186.6 | $168.79 | -$17.81 | 50% 24101-23732 (47833) |
MY myxi | Yesavg 55¢ | $109.45 | $113.43 | +$3.98 | 68% 313-148 (461) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 46¢ | $367.57 | $94.01 | -$99.73 | 58% 40382-29168 (69550) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $22 | $21.5 | -$0.5 | 52% 5814-5435 (11249) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 54.1¢ | $17.13 | $19.85 | +$2.72 | 54% 2558-2193 (4751) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $10.4 | $9.9 | -$0.5 | 54% 6000-5086 (11086) |
Invested
$209.1
Value
$169.08
PnL
-$40.02
Record
59%
44247-30614 (74861)
Invested
$186.6
Value
$168.79
PnL
-$17.81
Record
50%
24101-23732 (47833)
Invested
$109.45
Value
$113.43
PnL
+$3.98
Record
68%
313-148 (461)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$367.57
Value
$94.01
PnL
-$99.73
Record
58%
40382-29168 (69550)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$22
Value
$21.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
52%
5814-5435 (11249)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$17.13
Value
$19.85
PnL
+$2.72
Record
54%
2558-2193 (4751)
Invested
$10.4
Value
$9.9
PnL
-$0.5
Record
54%
6000-5086 (11086)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.