FC Arda Kardzhali vs. PFC Levski Sofia: O/U 3.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 56¢ · $102 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$101.94
-$9.33
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $86.85 | $78.39 | -$8.45 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 77¢ | $10.04 | $10.3 | +$0.26 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 94¢ | $6.58 | $6.61 | +$0.03 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 80.2¢ | $5.8 | $4.08 | -$1.71 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 79¢ | $45.59 | $2.55 | +$0.54 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
Invested
$86.85
Value
$78.39
PnL
-$8.45
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$10.04
Value
$10.3
PnL
+$0.26
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
Invested
$6.58
Value
$6.61
PnL
+$0.03
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.8
Value
$4.08
PnL
-$1.71
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$45.59
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.54
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.