FC Arda Kardzhali vs. PFC Levski Sofia: O/U 2.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 51¢ · $909 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$908.51
$13.09
61.6¢ → 50.5¢
-18% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 61.7¢ | $536.1 | $503.7 | -$32.39 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
MY myxiCTR | Overavg 39¢ | $214.49 | $241.99 | +$27.5 | 68% 314-149 (463) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 28.1¢ | $63.98 | $88.56 | +$24.58 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $60 | $57.5 | -$2.5 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 67.4¢ | $12.23 | $9.08 | -$3.15 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 56.1¢ | $8.61 | $7.67 | -$0.94 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
Invested
$536.1
Value
$503.7
PnL
-$32.39
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$214.49
Value
$241.99
PnL
+$27.5
Record
68%
314-149 (463)
Invested
$63.98
Value
$88.56
PnL
+$24.58
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$60
Value
$57.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$12.23
Value
$9.08
PnL
-$3.15
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.61
Value
$7.67
PnL
-$0.94
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.