Will PFC Levski Sofia win on 2026-10-27?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 77¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
$18.4K
$1.6K
79¢ → 76.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 78.9¢ | $13.3K | $15.3K | +$2.0K | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 79.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | -$126.17 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 79.8¢ | $698.15 | $677.94 | -$20.2 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 HRTrading | Noavg 79.8¢ | $912.23 | $580.22 | -$332.01 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $361.78 | $407.95 | +$46.16 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 57¢ | $348.27 | $312.43 | -$4.65 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $9.96 | $27.16 | +$17.2 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.1¢ | $49.65 | $25 | -$24.65 | 54% 6002-5094 (11096) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $2.59 | $1.8 | -$0.8 | 52% 5822-5445 (11267) |
Invested
$13,275.59
Value
$15.3K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$1,169.42
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$126.17
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Invested
$698.15
Value
$677.94
PnL
-$20.2
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
HRTradingInvested
$912.23
Value
$580.22
PnL
-$332.01
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$361.78
Value
$407.95
PnL
+$46.16
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$348.27
Value
$312.43
PnL
-$4.65
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$9.96
Value
$27.16
PnL
+$17.2
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
Invested
$49.65
Value
$25
PnL
-$24.65
Record
54%
6002-5094 (11096)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$2.59
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$0.8
Record
52%
5822-5445 (11267)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.