Will FC Arda Kardzhali win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 76¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$3.5K
$800.21
61.2¢ → 75.5¢
+23% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 51.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$95.38 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 15.1¢ | $453.84 | $1.1K | +$672.75 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR | Yesavg 51¢ | $556.66 | $562.12 | +$5.46 | 51% 837-790 (1627) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 87.3¢ | $437.57 | $466.19 | +$28.62 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 62.2¢ | $16.45 | $23.14 | +$6.69 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.4¢ | $7.27 | $2.94 | -$4.33 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.1¢ | $6.49 | $2.13 | -$4.36 | 54% 6002-5094 (11096) |
Invested
$1,234.74
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$95.38
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$453.84
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$672.75
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Invested
$556.66
Value
$562.12
PnL
+$5.46
Record
51%
837-790 (1627)
Invested
$437.57
Value
$466.19
PnL
+$28.62
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$16.45
Value
$23.14
PnL
+$6.69
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.27
Value
$2.94
PnL
-$4.33
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$6.49
Value
$2.13
PnL
-$4.36
Record
54%
6002-5094 (11096)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.