Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

33 of 52 top Polymarket traders hold Up (63%) · Up at 100¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.1K

Combined PnL

-$255.92

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 100¢

+30% since entry · 33 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

33 of 52 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%37 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares15,243

Combined PnL-$289.16

Up33 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares12,868

Combined PnL+$33.24

Down — 37%Up — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.9K	$8.6K	-$11.17	55% 553-446 (999)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$0.91	44% 391-500 (891)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$0.9	45% 675-821 (1496)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.6¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$9.34	54% 1670-1435 (3105)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$30.19	70% 1911-827 (2738)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$12.49	98% 4700-98 (4798)
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$0	52% 4002-3711 (7713)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$528.35	$497.97	+$3.43	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$252.36	$367.67	+$124.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.6¢	$248.1	$130.3	-$120.88
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 39.7¢	$390.28	$272.92	-$117.36	59% 1201-851 (2052)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 27.2¢	$170	$160.78	-$9.22	55% 4670-3764 (8434)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.4¢	$83.44	$120.94	+$37.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.2¢	$86.56	$39.84	-$46.72
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 77.9¢	$186.37	$152.14	-$34.23	44% 870-1102 (1972)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 97.4¢	$146.1	$144.75	-$1.35	40% 1813-2746 (4559)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 66.5¢	$94.4	$141.84	+$47.44	50% 4723-4777 (9500)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 60.1¢	$144.28	$139.52	-$4.75	51% 2638-2500 (5138)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 60.3¢	$70.73	$108.26	+$38.23	53% 1041-937 (1978)
pspspsps5	Upavg 97.2¢	$102	$104.45	+$2.45	34% 1285-2527 (3812)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 97.5¢	$86.29	$84.24	-$1.9	66% 4119-2085 (6204)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Upavg 62.9¢	$60.86	$74.1	+$13.24	58% 522-375 (897)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Upavg 85.1¢	$84.4	$68.25	-$16.15	45% 914-1096 (2010)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 98¢	$71.79	$67.78	-$4.01	62% 4812-2936 (7748)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$53.71	$60.12	+$6.41	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 62¢	$49.6	$54.64	+$5.04	48% 2616-2848 (5464)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 97¢	$54.18	$53.9	-$0.28	51% 4994-4725 (9719)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 78.6¢	$45.71	$45.71	-$0	54% 1107-960 (2067)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 53¢	$39.74	$43.86	+$4.12	50% 3904-3848 (7752)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,889

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$11.17

Record

55%

553-446 (999)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$0.91

Record

44%

391-500 (891)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$0.9

Record

45%

675-821 (1496)

0x50f7

Invested

$2,993.97

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$9.34

Record

54%

1670-1435 (3105)

BoneOhio

Invested

$1,992.38

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$30.19

Record

70%

1911-827 (2738)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,098.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$12.49

Record

98%

4700-98 (4798)

soswald1CTR

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

4002-3711 (7713)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$528.35

Value

$497.97

PnL

+$3.43

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

Both legs:

Up$252.3651.1¢+$124.31

Down$248.148.6¢-$120.88

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$390.28

Value

$272.92

PnL

-$117.36

Record

59%

1201-851 (2052)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$170

Value

$160.78

PnL

-$9.22

Record

55%

4670-3764 (8434)

Both legs:

Up$83.4460.4¢+$37.5

Down$86.5627.2¢-$46.72

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$186.37

Value

$152.14

PnL

-$34.23

Record

44%

870-1102 (1972)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$146.1

Value

$144.75

PnL

-$1.35

Record

40%

1813-2746 (4559)

asdcaxz

Invested

$94.4

Value

$141.84

PnL

+$47.44

Record

50%

4723-4777 (9500)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$144.28

Value

$139.52

PnL

-$4.75

Record

51%

2638-2500 (5138)

wzbbb

Invested

$70.73

Value

$108.26

PnL

+$38.23

Record

53%

1041-937 (1978)

pspspsps5

Invested

$102

Value

$104.45

PnL

+$2.45

Record

34%

1285-2527 (3812)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$86.29

Value

$84.24

PnL

-$1.9

Record

66%

4119-2085 (6204)

Alpharo28<$100

Invested

$60.86

Value

$74.1

PnL

+$13.24

Record

58%

522-375 (897)

GoodFallen<$100

Invested

$84.4

Value

$68.25

PnL

-$16.15

Record

45%

914-1096 (2010)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$71.79

Value

$67.78

PnL

-$4.01

Record

62%

4812-2936 (7748)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$53.71

Value

$60.12

PnL

+$6.41

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$49.6

Value

$54.64

PnL

+$5.04

Record

48%

2616-2848 (5464)

bosona<$100

Invested

$54.18

Value

$53.9

PnL

-$0.28

Record

51%

4994-4725 (9719)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$45.71

Value

$45.71

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

1107-960 (2067)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$39.74

Value

$43.86

PnL

+$4.12

Record

50%

3904-3848 (7752)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

33 of 52 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%37 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.