Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

$-8.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

35 of 50 top traders (70%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares10,355

Combined PnL$-8.0K

Down35 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,489

Combined PnL+$35.5

Up — 30%Down — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	$8.3K	-$76.98	55% 553-446 (999)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.2K	$8.3K	+$4.2K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.2K	—	$-4.3K
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.5K	44% 391-500 (891)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.2K	45% 675-821 (1496)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$25.88	99% 991-7 (998)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 61.3¢	$632.36	$596.52	-$35.84	59% 1201-851 (2052)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$552.08	$498.43	+$7.36	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$250.52	$498.43	+$251.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.5¢	$240.15	—	-$244.62
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$506.66	$517	+$10.34	98% 4700-98 (4798)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$362.15	$409.1	+$46.95	50% 4723-4777 (9500)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.7¢	$236.17	$409.1	+$172.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 41¢	$125.98	—	-$125.98
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 56.4¢	$293.92	$319.99	+$26.07	45% 914-1096 (2010)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.4¢	$180.45	$319.99	+$139.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.4¢	$113.47	—	-$113.47
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.4¢	$351.54	$324.03	-$27.5	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 58.4¢	$285.47	$321.61	+$41.3	53% 1041-937 (1978)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 72.4¢	$404.93	$283.59	-$121.33	44% 870-1102 (1972)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 76.6¢	$268.83	$280	+$14.64	51% 2638-2500 (5138)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 51.8¢	$206.73	$231.01	+$24.27	51% 494-467 (961)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.8¢	$119.75	$231.01	+$111.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.5¢	$86.99	—	-$86.99
BL blue.birds	Downavg 88.7¢	$239.16	$215.34	-$23.82	52% 5253-4908 (10161)
BoneOhioARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$132	$150	+$18	70% 1911-827 (2738)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$73.5	$150	+$76.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 39¢	$58.5	—	-$58.5
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 98¢	$129.36	$132	+$2.64	40% 1813-2746 (4559)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 54.3¢	$98.63	$114.25	+$15.62	54% 4711-4082 (8793)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.3¢	$62	$114.25	+$52.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.6¢	$36.63	—	-$36.63
OhioAIARB<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$107.57	$109.16	+$1.59	50% 914-896 (1810)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.6¢	$70.52	$109.16	+$38.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 34¢	$37.05	—	-$37.05
ohioism	Downavg 63.3¢	$102.7	$101.5	-$1.2	47% 2539-2808 (5347)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 95.3¢	$216.05	$101.53	-$5.62	66% 4119-2085 (6204)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 16.2¢	$135.37	$76.02	-$59.35	47% 1221-1358 (2579)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.1¢	$50.27	$76.02	+$25.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.2¢	$85.1	—	-$85.1
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 73.6¢	$110.2	$100	-$10.2	48% 2635-2900 (5535)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 57.1¢	$51.35	$90	+$38.65	44% 2501-3236 (5737)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 73¢	$78.81	$80.53	+$1.72	54% 1107-960 (2067)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,723

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$76.98

Record

55%

553-446 (999)

Both legs:

Down$4,156.5650¢+$4.2K

Up$4,24050¢$-4.3K

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

44%

391-500 (891)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

45%

675-821 (1496)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,562.12

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$25.88

Record

99%

991-7 (998)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$632.36

Value

$596.52

PnL

-$35.84

Record

59%

1201-851 (2052)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$552.08

Value

$498.43

PnL

+$7.36

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

Both legs:

Down$250.5250.3¢+$251.98

Up$240.1547.5¢-$244.62

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$506.66

Value

$517

PnL

+$10.34

Record

98%

4700-98 (4798)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$362.15

Value

$409.1

PnL

+$46.95

Record

50%

4723-4777 (9500)

Both legs:

Down$236.1757.7¢+$172.93

Up$125.9841¢-$125.98

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$293.92

Value

$319.99

PnL

+$26.07

Record

45%

914-1096 (2010)

Both legs:

Down$180.4556.4¢+$139.54

Up$113.4732.4¢-$113.47

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$351.54

Value

$324.03

PnL

-$27.5

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$285.47

Value

$321.61

PnL

+$41.3

Record

53%

1041-937 (1978)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$404.93

Value

$283.59

PnL

-$121.33

Record

44%

870-1102 (1972)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$268.83

Value

$280

PnL

+$14.64

Record

51%

2638-2500 (5138)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$206.73

Value

$231.01

PnL

+$24.27

Record

51%

494-467 (961)

Both legs:

Down$119.7551.8¢+$111.26

Up$86.9943.5¢-$86.99

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$239.16

Value

$215.34

PnL

-$23.82

Record

52%

5253-4908 (10161)

BoneOhioARB<$100

Down

Invested

$132

Value

$150

PnL

+$18

Record

70%

1911-827 (2738)

Both legs:

Invested

$129.36

Value

$132

PnL

+$2.64

Record

40%

1813-2746 (4559)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$98.63

Value

$114.25

PnL

+$15.62

Record

54%

4711-4082 (8793)

Both legs:

Invested

$107.57

Value

$109.16

PnL

+$1.59

Record

50%

914-896 (1810)

Both legs:

Down$70.5264.6¢+$38.64

Up$37.0534¢-$37.05

ohioism

Down

Invested

$102.7

Value

$101.5

PnL

-$1.2

Record

47%

2539-2808 (5347)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$216.05

Value

$101.53

PnL

-$5.62

Record

66%

4119-2085 (6204)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$135.37

Value

$76.02

PnL

-$59.35

Record

47%

1221-1358 (2579)

Both legs:

Down$50.2766.1¢+$25.75

Up$85.116.2¢-$85.1

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$110.2

Value

$100

PnL

-$10.2

Record

48%

2635-2900 (5535)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$51.35

Value

$90

PnL

+$38.65

Record

44%

2501-3236 (5737)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$78.81

Value

$80.53

PnL

+$1.72

Record

54%

1107-960 (2067)

Smart Money Signal

Down

35 of 50 top traders (70%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf9e5076e...c7da1d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794785400

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Up — $0

THG.

Down — $2.6K

+$25.88

Bonereaper

Down — $596.52

-$35.84

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$7.36

hoodquant

Down — $517

asdcaxz

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $324.03

-$27.5

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