Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 18 of 60 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

18 of 60 top Polymarket traders hold Down (30%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.6K

Combined PnL

$137.41

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 60 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$16.8K

Total Shares20,548

Combined PnL-$94.01

Up42 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares10,807

Combined PnL+$231.42

Down — 30%Up — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.7K	$7.9K	-$12.92	55% 553-446 (999)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.4K	+$13.08	44% 391-500 (891)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$33.25	99% 991-7 (998)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.2K	-$88.77	45% 675-821 (1496)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 65.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$124.6	49% 2596-2668 (5264)
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$950	$915.27	-$7.74	52% 4002-3711 (7713)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 79.2¢	$469.84	$517.95	+$48.11	50% 4723-4777 (9500)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.8¢	$567.63	$499.94	-$3.77	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 68.8¢	$478.65	$447.24	-$4.47	44% 870-1102 (1972)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 69.5¢	$671.52	$428.52	-$130.39	59% 1201-851 (2052)
ST stepahead	Upavg 80¢	$372.94	$380.37	+$7.42	55% 4670-3764 (8434)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 77.8¢	$349.23	$316.84	+$51.09	52% 5253-4908 (10161)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 71.2¢	$274.74	$278.52	+$3.79	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 67.2¢	$239.19	$258.85	+$46.49	53% 1041-937 (1978)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 90.4¢	$307.06	$256.1	-$50.96	51% 2638-2500 (5138)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 87.2¢	$237.57	$254.83	+$17.27	51% 923-892 (1815)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 63.6¢	$221.38	$250.08	+$28.7	35% 862-1595 (2457)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 15.4¢	$162.15	$243.84	+$81.69	51% 2283-2160 (4443)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.9¢	$72.4	$147.87	+$75.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.4¢	$89.75	$95.97	+$6.21
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 63.4¢	$196.54	$243.72	+$47.18	45% 914-1096 (2010)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 33.3¢	$149.95	$219.9	+$69.96	47% 1221-1358 (2579)
machinelearned	Upavg 86.1¢	$209.55	$153.68	-$55.88	48% 1231-1348 (2579)
AL almach	Upavg 87.8¢	$137.7	$151.8	+$14.11	52% 1730-1622 (3352)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 62.1¢	$109.49	$130.94	+$21.45	48% 868-931 (1799)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 57.4¢	$67.26	$107.34	+$40.08	54% 4711-4082 (8793)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 66¢	$108.98	$102.93	-$6.05	51% 494-467 (961)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,680

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$12.92

Record

55%

553-446 (999)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$13.08

Record

44%

391-500 (891)

THG.

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$33.25

Record

99%

991-7 (998)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$88.77

Record

45%

675-821 (1496)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$1,073.33

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$124.6

Record

49%

2596-2668 (5264)

soswald1CTR

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$915.27

PnL

-$7.74

Record

52%

4002-3711 (7713)

asdcaxz

Invested

$469.84

Value

$517.95

PnL

+$48.11

Record

50%

4723-4777 (9500)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$567.63

Value

$499.94

PnL

-$3.77

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$478.65

Value

$447.24

PnL

-$4.47

Record

44%

870-1102 (1972)

Bonereaper

Invested

$671.52

Value

$428.52

PnL

-$130.39

Record

59%

1201-851 (2052)

stepahead

Invested

$372.94

Value

$380.37

PnL

+$7.42

Record

55%

4670-3764 (8434)

blue.birds

Invested

$349.23

Value

$316.84

PnL

+$51.09

Record

52%

5253-4908 (10161)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$274.74

Value

$278.52

PnL

+$3.79

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

wzbbb

Invested

$239.19

Value

$258.85

PnL

+$46.49

Record

53%

1041-937 (1978)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$307.06

Value

$256.1

PnL

-$50.96

Record

51%

2638-2500 (5138)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$237.57

Value

$254.83

PnL

+$17.27

Record

51%

923-892 (1815)

ply-pm0

Invested

$221.38

Value

$250.08

PnL

+$28.7

Record

35%

862-1595 (2457)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$162.15

Value

$243.84

PnL

+$81.69

Record

51%

2283-2160 (4443)

Both legs:

Up$72.440.9¢+$75.48

Down$89.7515.4¢+$6.21

GoodFallen

Invested

$196.54

Value

$243.72

PnL

+$47.18

Record

45%

914-1096 (2010)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$149.95

Value

$219.9

PnL

+$69.96

Record

47%

1221-1358 (2579)

machinelearned

Invested

$209.55

Value

$153.68

PnL

-$55.88

Record

48%

1231-1348 (2579)

almach

Invested

$137.7

Value

$151.8

PnL

+$14.11

Record

52%

1730-1622 (3352)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$109.49

Value

$130.94

PnL

+$21.45

Record

48%

868-931 (1799)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$67.26

Value

$107.34

PnL

+$40.08

Record

54%

4711-4082 (8793)

gansinimen

Invested

$108.98

Value

$102.93

PnL

-$6.05

Record

51%

494-467 (961)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 60 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.