Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
58
Down 36%
1 arb excluded
$7.1K
$-16.6K
Smart Money Signal
21 of 58 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%41 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-8.2K | 55% 553-446 (999) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 44% 391-500 (891) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 45% 675-821 (1496) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$16.39 | 99% 991-7 (998) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$19.82 | 98% 4700-98 (4798) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.1¢ | $517.26 | $500 | -$7.19 | 54% 4416-3739 (8155) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $438.77 | $556.38 | +$117.61 | 51% 2283-2160 (4443) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.3¢ | $279.61 | $556.38 | +$276.77 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.5¢ | $159.15 | — | -$159.15 | |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 51.5¢ | $287.08 | $316.4 | +$29.32 | 59% 1201-851 (2052) |
BO bosona | Upavg 97¢ | $289.67 | $250 | -$39.67 | 51% 4994-4725 (9719) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 76.1¢ | $275.3 | $220 | -$55.3 | 51% 2638-2500 (5138) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 62.7¢ | $166.13 | $216.01 | +$49.88 | 44% 870-1102 (1972) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 92.2¢ | $247.86 | $203.01 | -$44.85 | 49% 3753-3853 (7606) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 53.2¢ | $199.28 | $197.66 | -$1.62 | 55% 4670-3764 (8434) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 52¢ | $202.64 | — | -$202.64 | 47% 1221-1358 (2579) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 62.3¢ | $137.14 | $179.98 | +$42.84 | 45% 914-1096 (2010) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 63.3¢ | $107.98 | $154.7 | +$46.72 | 50% 4723-4777 (9500) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 41.5¢ | $37.81 | $91 | +$53.19 | 51% 1178-1119 (2297) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 45.3¢ | $38.5 | $85 | +$46.5 | 47% 2539-2808 (5347) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 94.2¢ | $141.07 | $83.5 | -$40.37 | 35% 862-1595 (2457) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 80.2¢ | $71.39 | $72.82 | +$1.43 | 52% 5253-4908 (10161) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 66.7¢ | $75.05 | $79.53 | +$4.49 | 62% 4812-2936 (7748) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $62.37 | $63 | +$0.63 | 47% 857-960 (1817) |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 89.7¢ | $61.13 | $58.08 | -$3.05 | 52% 1730-1622 (3352) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $51.79 | $57.54 | +$5.75 | 51% 923-892 (1815) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 81.3¢ | $55.04 | $51.73 | -$3.31 | 54% 1107-960 (2067) |
Invested
$8,547
Value
—
PnL
$-8.2K
Record
55%
553-446 (999)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
44%
391-500 (891)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
45%
675-821 (1496)
Invested
$1,622.99
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$16.39
Record
99%
991-7 (998)
Invested
$1,466.18
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$19.82
Record
98%
4700-98 (4798)
Invested
$517.26
Value
$500
PnL
-$7.19
Record
54%
4416-3739 (8155)
Invested
$438.77
Value
$556.38
PnL
+$117.61
Record
51%
2283-2160 (4443)
Both legs:
Invested
$287.08
Value
$316.4
PnL
+$29.32
Record
59%
1201-851 (2052)
Invested
$289.67
Value
$250
PnL
-$39.67
Record
51%
4994-4725 (9719)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$275.3
Value
$220
PnL
-$55.3
Record
51%
2638-2500 (5138)
Invested
$166.13
Value
$216.01
PnL
+$49.88
Record
44%
870-1102 (1972)
Invested
$247.86
Value
$203.01
PnL
-$44.85
Record
49%
3753-3853 (7606)
Invested
$199.28
Value
$197.66
PnL
-$1.62
Record
55%
4670-3764 (8434)
Invested
$202.64
Value
—
PnL
-$202.64
Record
47%
1221-1358 (2579)
Invested
$137.14
Value
$179.98
PnL
+$42.84
Record
45%
914-1096 (2010)
Invested
$107.98
Value
$154.7
PnL
+$46.72
Record
50%
4723-4777 (9500)
Invested
$37.81
Value
$91
PnL
+$53.19
Record
51%
1178-1119 (2297)
ohioism<$100Invested
$38.5
Value
$85
PnL
+$46.5
Record
47%
2539-2808 (5347)
Invested
$141.07
Value
$83.5
PnL
-$40.37
Record
35%
862-1595 (2457)
Invested
$71.39
Value
$72.82
PnL
+$1.43
Record
52%
5253-4908 (10161)
Invested
$75.05
Value
$79.53
PnL
+$4.49
Record
62%
4812-2936 (7748)
Invested
$62.37
Value
$63
PnL
+$0.63
Record
47%
857-960 (1817)
Invested
$61.13
Value
$58.08
PnL
-$3.05
Record
52%
1730-1622 (3352)
Invested
$51.79
Value
$57.54
PnL
+$5.75
Record
51%
923-892 (1815)
Invested
$55.04
Value
$51.73
PnL
-$3.31
Record
54%
1107-960 (2067)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $1.6K
hoodquant
Up — $1.5K
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
Up — $316.4
bosona
Up — $250
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $220