Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 26% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 26%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$-15.3K

Smart Money Signal

15 of 57 top traders (26%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares17,529

Combined PnL$-15.7K

Down42 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares10,341

Combined PnL+$382.3

Up — 26%Down — 74%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	—	$-8.0K	55% 553-446 (999)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.4¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$28.87	54% 1670-1435 (3105)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.5K	44% 391-500 (891)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.0K	45% 675-821 (1496)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 72.9¢	$916.43	$985.54	+$69.1	59% 1201-851 (2052)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 28.7¢	$893.29	$608.14	-$285.15	51% 2283-2160 (4443)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.9¢	$285.12	$608.14	+$323.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.7¢	$608.17	—	-$608.17
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 41.6¢	$519.19	$395.43	-$123.77	47% 1221-1358 (2579)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.2¢	$206.4	$395.43	+$189.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.6¢	$312.79	—	-$312.79
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 53.4¢	$585.34	$490	+$3.5	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 77¢	$366.19	$388.48	+$22.29	50% 4723-4777 (9500)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 62.8¢	$361.69	$297.99	-$63.7	44% 870-1102 (1972)
ST stepahead	Downavg 60.4¢	$276.12	$272.67	-$3.44	55% 4670-3764 (8434)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 89.8¢	$245.37	$273.38	+$28.01	49% 2596-2668 (5264)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 64.7¢	$228.6	$272.43	+$43.83	45% 914-1096 (2010)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 70.2¢	$245.08	$249.5	+$4.42	35% 862-1595 (2457)
MO mo-money	Downavg 59.9¢	$223.76	$250	+$26.24	52% 1741-1612 (3353)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 61.5¢	$180	$199.99	+$19.99	51% 494-467 (961)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 76.2¢	$206.44	$195.5	-$2.44	53% 1041-937 (1978)
BO bosona	Downavg 77.2¢	$205.41	$169.99	-$35.42	51% 4994-4725 (9719)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 47.1¢	$140.97	$299.5	+$158.53	50% 1016-1007 (2023)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 55.6¢	$122.56	$120.46	+$7.2	51% 2638-2500 (5138)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 68¢	$121.54	$100	-$21.54	52% 5253-4908 (10161)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$98.98	$101	+$2.02	98% 4700-98 (4798)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 73.2¢	$115.73	$92.15	-$23.58	54% 4711-4082 (8793)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 50.8¢	$70.55	$105.86	+$35.31	58% 522-375 (897)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 78.2¢	$67.97	$76.85	+$8.88	66% 4119-2085 (6204)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,816

Value

—

PnL

$-8.0K

Record

55%

553-446 (999)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$4,576.84

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$28.87

Record

54%

1670-1435 (3105)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

44%

391-500 (891)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

45%

675-821 (1496)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$916.43

Value

$985.54

PnL

+$69.1

Record

59%

1201-851 (2052)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$893.29

Value

$608.14

PnL

-$285.15

Record

51%

2283-2160 (4443)

Both legs:

Down$285.1246.9¢+$323.02

Up$608.1728.7¢-$608.17

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$519.19

Value

$395.43

PnL

-$123.77

Record

47%

1221-1358 (2579)

Both legs:

Down$206.452.2¢+$189.03

Up$312.7941.6¢-$312.79

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$585.34

Value

$490

PnL

+$3.5

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$366.19

Value

$388.48

PnL

+$22.29

Record

50%

4723-4777 (9500)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$361.69

Value

$297.99

PnL

-$63.7

Record

44%

870-1102 (1972)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$276.12

Value

$272.67

PnL

-$3.44

Record

55%

4670-3764 (8434)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$245.37

Value

$273.38

PnL

+$28.01

Record

49%

2596-2668 (5264)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$228.6

Value

$272.43

PnL

+$43.83

Record

45%

914-1096 (2010)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$245.08

Value

$249.5

PnL

+$4.42

Record

35%

862-1595 (2457)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$223.76

Value

$250

PnL

+$26.24

Record

52%

1741-1612 (3353)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$180

Value

$199.99

PnL

+$19.99

Record

51%

494-467 (961)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$206.44

Value

$195.5

PnL

-$2.44

Record

53%

1041-937 (1978)

bosona

Down

Invested

$205.41

Value

$169.99

PnL

-$35.42

Record

51%

4994-4725 (9719)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$140.97

Value

$299.5

PnL

+$158.53

Record

50%

1016-1007 (2023)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$122.56

Value

$120.46

PnL

+$7.2

Record

51%

2638-2500 (5138)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$121.54

Value

$100

PnL

-$21.54

Record

52%

5253-4908 (10161)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$98.98

Value

$101

PnL

+$2.02

Record

98%

4700-98 (4798)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$115.73

Value

$92.15

PnL

-$23.58

Record

54%

4711-4082 (8793)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$70.55

Value

$105.86

PnL

+$35.31

Record

58%

522-375 (897)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$67.97

Value

$76.85

PnL

+$8.88

Record

66%

4119-2085 (6204)

Smart Money Signal

15 of 57 top traders (26%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x862bc0ae...8c2cf9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794784500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Up — $0

$-8.0K

0x50f7

Down — $4.6K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Up — $0

Bonereaper

Down — $985.54

+$69.1

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Down — $490

+$3.5

asdcaxz

Down — $388.48

+$22.29

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $297.99

-$63.7

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