Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 27% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 27%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$-16.1K

Smart Money Signal

14 of 51 top traders (27%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares18,415

Combined PnL$-16.8K

Down37 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares5,686

Combined PnL+$690.18

Up — 27%Down — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	—	$-8.5K	55% 553-446 (999)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.7K	44% 391-500 (891)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.0K	45% 675-821 (1496)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.6¢	$959.99	$973.33	+$13.34	98% 4700-98 (4798)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$945	-$1.95	52% 4002-3711 (7713)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$472.5	$945	+$473.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	—	-$475
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 46.3¢	$526.21	$934.83	+$408.62	51% 2283-2160 (4443)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$555.41	$494.89	+$1.65	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$246.21	$494.89	+$249.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.3¢	$248.07	—	-$248.15
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 74.4¢	$532.55	$427.05	-$105.5	59% 1201-851 (2052)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$374.19	$377.97	+$3.78	99% 991-7 (998)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 74.6¢	$317.5	$343.63	+$26.13	52% 5253-4908 (10161)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 54.8¢	$275.97	$271.99	-$3.98	44% 870-1102 (1972)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 39.4¢	$412.9	—	-$399.85	47% 1221-1358 (2579)
machinelearned	Downavg 80.5¢	$208.28	$258.76	+$50.49	48% 1231-1348 (2579)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 59¢	$159.87	$231.11	+$71.24	45% 914-1096 (2010)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 73.6¢	$156.61	$186.23	+$30	53% 1041-937 (1978)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 90.7¢	$223.24	$185.22	-$38.02	50% 4723-4777 (9500)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$198.4	$160.94	-$37.46	47% 857-960 (1817)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.6¢	$104.01	$160.94	+$56.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.2¢	$94.39	—	-$94.39
ST stepahead	Downavg 71.7¢	$154.76	$150.37	-$4.39	55% 4670-3764 (8434)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 84.3¢	$176.3	$137.57	-$19.8	35% 862-1595 (2457)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 37.9¢	$291.06	—	-$168.24	51% 2638-2500 (5138)
LI Little-big	Downavg 56¢	$67.15	$119.84	+$52.69	51% 1178-1119 (2297)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 50.8¢	$108.74	$84.89	-$23.84	50% 921-917 (1838)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$65.92	—	-$65.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$42.81	$84.89	+$42.08
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 45.7¢	$89.43	$100.29	+$28.01	58% 522-375 (897)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 60.6¢	$84.6	$90	+$5.4	44% 2501-3236 (5737)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 77.6¢	$87.54	$84.99	-$2.55	54% 1107-960 (2067)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,921

Value

—

PnL

$-8.5K

Record

55%

553-446 (999)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

44%

391-500 (891)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

45%

675-821 (1496)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$959.99

Value

$973.33

PnL

+$13.34

Record

98%

4700-98 (4798)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$945

PnL

-$1.95

Record

52%

4002-3711 (7713)

Both legs:

Down$472.550¢+$473.05

Up$47550¢-$475

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$526.21

Value

$934.83

PnL

+$408.62

Record

51%

2283-2160 (4443)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$555.41

Value

$494.89

PnL

+$1.65

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

Both legs:

Down$246.2149.8¢+$249.8

Up$248.0749.3¢-$248.15

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$532.55

Value

$427.05

PnL

-$105.5

Record

59%

1201-851 (2052)

THG.

Down

Invested

$374.19

Value

$377.97

PnL

+$3.78

Record

99%

991-7 (998)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$317.5

Value

$343.63

PnL

+$26.13

Record

52%

5253-4908 (10161)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$275.97

Value

$271.99

PnL

-$3.98

Record

44%

870-1102 (1972)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$412.9

Value

—

PnL

-$399.85

Record

47%

1221-1358 (2579)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$208.28

Value

$258.76

PnL

+$50.49

Record

48%

1231-1348 (2579)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$159.87

Value

$231.11

PnL

+$71.24

Record

45%

914-1096 (2010)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$156.61

Value

$186.23

PnL

+$30

Record

53%

1041-937 (1978)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$223.24

Value

$185.22

PnL

-$38.02

Record

50%

4723-4777 (9500)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$198.4

Value

$160.94

PnL

-$37.46

Record

47%

857-960 (1817)

Both legs:

Down$104.0164.6¢+$56.93

Up$94.3932.2¢-$94.39

stepahead

Down

Invested

$154.76

Value

$150.37

PnL

-$4.39

Record

55%

4670-3764 (8434)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$176.3

Value

$137.57

PnL

-$19.8

Record

35%

862-1595 (2457)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$291.06

Value

—

PnL

-$168.24

Record

51%

2638-2500 (5138)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$67.15

Value

$119.84

PnL

+$52.69

Record

51%

1178-1119 (2297)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$108.74

Value

$84.89

PnL

-$23.84

Record

50%

921-917 (1838)

Both legs:

Up$65.9250.8¢-$65.92

Down$42.8150.4¢+$42.08

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$89.43

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$28.01

Record

58%

522-375 (897)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$84.6

Value

$90

PnL

+$5.4

Record

44%

2501-3236 (5737)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$87.54

Value

$84.99

PnL

-$2.55

Record

54%

1107-960 (2067)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 51 top traders (27%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcb476591...eb3e68

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794784200

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $973.33

+$13.34

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$1.95

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $934.83

+$408.62

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$1.65

Bonereaper

Down — $427.05

-$105.5

THG.

Down — $377.97

+$3.78

blue.birds

Down — $343.63

+$26.13

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