Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Down 81%
1 arb excluded
$19.7K
$-7.8K
Smart Money Signal
43 of 53 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-8.3K | 55% 553-446 (999) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$29.97 | 44% 391-500 (891) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$37.33 | 45% 675-821 (1496) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 54% 1670-1435 (3105) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$13.87 | 98% 4700-98 (4798) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $693.55 | $1.4K | +$664.82 | 51% 2283-2160 (4443) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 89.6¢ | $682.57 | $761.76 | +$79.19 | 52% 1741-1612 (3353) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99.7¢ | $598.2 | $600 | +$1.8 | 50% 1805-1831 (3636) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $522.8 | $495 | -$4.03 | 54% 4416-3739 (8155) |
BO bosona | Downavg 88.8¢ | $459.21 | $511.68 | +$52.47 | 51% 4994-4725 (9719) |
AL almach | Downavg 89¢ | $450.67 | $506.3 | +$55.63 | 52% 1730-1622 (3352) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 66.6¢ | $425.86 | $391.57 | -$34.29 | 55% 4670-3764 (8434) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 89¢ | $501.46 | $246.49 | -$84.79 | 51% 2638-2500 (5138) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 66.4¢ | $234.03 | $209.69 | -$4.2 | 59% 1201-851 (2052) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 95.6¢ | $153.41 | $159.06 | +$5.65 | 40% 1813-2746 (4559) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 92.4¢ | $145.95 | $154.99 | +$9.04 | 50% 4723-4777 (9500) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 32.9¢ | $286.27 | — | -$286.27 | 47% 1221-1358 (2579) |
PB PBot-6ARB<$100 | Upavg 47.1¢ | $126.57 | $58 | -$68.57 | 50% 1016-1007 (2023) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.1¢ | $97.49 | — | -$97.49 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $29.08 | $58 | +$28.92 | |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 79.9¢ | $109.75 | $123.02 | +$13.27 | 47% 857-960 (1817) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 98¢ | $125.71 | $100 | -$25.71 | 35% 862-1595 (2457) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100 | Downavg 65.8¢ | $90.64 | $97.05 | +$6.41 | 51% 923-892 (1815) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 74.6¢ | $103.79 | $86.62 | +$24.72 | 52% 5253-4908 (10161) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $43.83 | $65.09 | +$21.26 | 50% 921-917 (1838) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $53.71 | $60.72 | +$7.01 | 48% 1231-1348 (2579) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $66.83 | $60 | -$6.83 | 49% 3753-3853 (7606) |
Invested
$8,817
Value
—
PnL
$-8.3K
Record
55%
553-446 (999)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$29.97
Record
44%
391-500 (891)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$37.33
Record
45%
675-821 (1496)
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
54%
1670-1435 (3105)
Invested
$1,242.13
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.87
Record
98%
4700-98 (4798)
Invested
$693.55
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$664.82
Record
51%
2283-2160 (4443)
Invested
$682.57
Value
$761.76
PnL
+$79.19
Record
52%
1741-1612 (3353)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$598.2
Value
$600
PnL
+$1.8
Record
50%
1805-1831 (3636)
Invested
$522.8
Value
$495
PnL
-$4.03
Record
54%
4416-3739 (8155)
Invested
$459.21
Value
$511.68
PnL
+$52.47
Record
51%
4994-4725 (9719)
Invested
$450.67
Value
$506.3
PnL
+$55.63
Record
52%
1730-1622 (3352)
Invested
$425.86
Value
$391.57
PnL
-$34.29
Record
55%
4670-3764 (8434)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$501.46
Value
$246.49
PnL
-$84.79
Record
51%
2638-2500 (5138)
Invested
$234.03
Value
$209.69
PnL
-$4.2
Record
59%
1201-851 (2052)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$153.41
Value
$159.06
PnL
+$5.65
Record
40%
1813-2746 (4559)
Invested
$145.95
Value
$154.99
PnL
+$9.04
Record
50%
4723-4777 (9500)
Invested
$286.27
Value
—
PnL
-$286.27
Record
47%
1221-1358 (2579)
Invested
$126.57
Value
$58
PnL
-$68.57
Record
50%
1016-1007 (2023)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.75
Value
$123.02
PnL
+$13.27
Record
47%
857-960 (1817)
Invested
$125.71
Value
$100
PnL
-$25.71
Record
35%
862-1595 (2457)
Invested
$90.64
Value
$97.05
PnL
+$6.41
Record
51%
923-892 (1815)
Invested
$103.79
Value
$86.62
PnL
+$24.72
Record
52%
5253-4908 (10161)
Invested
$43.83
Value
$65.09
PnL
+$21.26
Record
50%
921-917 (1838)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$53.71
Value
$60.72
PnL
+$7.01
Record
48%
1231-1348 (2579)
Invested
$66.83
Value
$60
PnL
-$6.83
Record
49%
3753-3853 (7606)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.8K
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.4K
mo-money
Down — $761.76
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $600
ByteBadger92
Down — $495
bosona
Down — $511.68