Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
50
Up 71%
3 arb excluded
$13.1K
$-8.0K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 50 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%35 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $7.8K | -$18.12 | 55% 553-446 (999) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 44% 391-500 (891) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.5K | 45% 675-821 (1496) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0 | 52% 4002-3711 (7713) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 85.8¢ | $654.08 | $715.9 | +$61.82 | 48% 1231-1348 (2579) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 52.9¢ | $554.12 | $493.29 | -$2.12 | 54% 4416-3739 (8155) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 71.4¢ | $413.01 | $437.68 | +$24.67 | 55% 4670-3764 (8434) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 37.5¢ | $379.04 | $183.06 | -$195.98 | 52% 1741-1612 (3353) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.5¢ | $256.39 | — | -$256.39 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67¢ | $122.65 | $183.06 | +$60.41 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 77.5¢ | $336.98 | $359.3 | +$22.32 | 35% 862-1595 (2457) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 87.6¢ | $346.48 | $335.67 | -$10.81 | 59% 1201-851 (2052) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 73.7¢ | $359.61 | $279.99 | -$60.22 | 51% 2638-2500 (5138) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $238.33 | $110.79 | -$127.55 | 47% 1221-1358 (2579) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36¢ | $175.68 | — | -$175.68 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.6¢ | $62.65 | $110.79 | +$48.13 | |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $303.33 | $105.07 | -$198.26 | 52% 1730-1622 (3352) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39¢ | $236.09 | — | -$236.09 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64¢ | $67.24 | $105.07 | +$37.82 | |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 75.4¢ | $105.63 | $140.17 | +$34.54 | 52% 5253-4908 (10161) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 37¢ | $105.92 | — | -$105.92 | 51% 4994-4725 (9719) |
PA Papeasy | Upavg 84.4¢ | $119.06 | $141.04 | +$21.98 | 50% 3904-3848 (7752) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 92.7¢ | $104.67 | $112.85 | +$8.18 | 50% 4723-4777 (9500) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 67¢ | $111.17 | $166 | +$54.83 | 51% 2283-2160 (4443) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $86 | $100 | +$14 | 51% 494-467 (961) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 79.5¢ | $58.53 | $64.99 | +$6.46 | 54% 1107-960 (2067) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 81.7¢ | $49.33 | $60.38 | +$11.05 | 66% 4119-2085 (6204) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Upavg 64.1¢ | $41.7 | $62.03 | +$20.33 | 50% 921-917 (1838) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Upavg 83.9¢ | $49.39 | $58.85 | +$9.46 | 59% 1144-798 (1942) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Upavg 74.5¢ | $48.92 | $60 | +$11.08 | 58% 522-375 (897) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Upavg 90.5¢ | $61.1 | $60 | -$1.1 | 44% 870-1102 (1972) |
Invested
$8,694
Value
$7.8K
PnL
-$18.12
Record
55%
553-446 (999)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
44%
391-500 (891)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.5K
Record
45%
675-821 (1496)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
4002-3711 (7713)
machinelearnedInvested
$654.08
Value
$715.9
PnL
+$61.82
Record
48%
1231-1348 (2579)
Invested
$554.12
Value
$493.29
PnL
-$2.12
Record
54%
4416-3739 (8155)
Invested
$413.01
Value
$437.68
PnL
+$24.67
Record
55%
4670-3764 (8434)
Invested
$379.04
Value
$183.06
PnL
-$195.98
Record
52%
1741-1612 (3353)
Both legs:
Invested
$336.98
Value
$359.3
PnL
+$22.32
Record
35%
862-1595 (2457)
Invested
$346.48
Value
$335.67
PnL
-$10.81
Record
59%
1201-851 (2052)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$359.61
Value
$279.99
PnL
-$60.22
Record
51%
2638-2500 (5138)
Invested
$238.33
Value
$110.79
PnL
-$127.55
Record
47%
1221-1358 (2579)
Both legs:
Invested
$303.33
Value
$105.07
PnL
-$198.26
Record
52%
1730-1622 (3352)
Both legs:
Invested
$105.63
Value
$140.17
PnL
+$34.54
Record
52%
5253-4908 (10161)
Invested
$105.92
Value
—
PnL
-$105.92
Record
51%
4994-4725 (9719)
Invested
$119.06
Value
$141.04
PnL
+$21.98
Record
50%
3904-3848 (7752)
Invested
$104.67
Value
$112.85
PnL
+$8.18
Record
50%
4723-4777 (9500)
Invested
$111.17
Value
$166
PnL
+$54.83
Record
51%
2283-2160 (4443)
Invested
$86
Value
$100
PnL
+$14
Record
51%
494-467 (961)
Invested
$58.53
Value
$64.99
PnL
+$6.46
Record
54%
1107-960 (2067)
Invested
$49.33
Value
$60.38
PnL
+$11.05
Record
66%
4119-2085 (6204)
Invested
$41.7
Value
$62.03
PnL
+$20.33
Record
50%
921-917 (1838)
Invested
$49.39
Value
$58.85
PnL
+$9.46
Record
59%
1144-798 (1942)
Invested
$48.92
Value
$60
PnL
+$11.08
Record
58%
522-375 (897)
Invested
$61.1
Value
$60
PnL
-$1.1
Record
44%
870-1102 (1972)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.8K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $950
machinelearned
Up — $715.9
ByteBadger92
Up — $493.29
stepahead
Up — $437.68
mo-money
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Up — $359.3
Bonereaper
Up — $335.67