Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
50
Up 41%
5 arb excluded
$7.3K
$-16.4K
Smart Money Signal
21 of 50 top traders (42%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-8.2K | 55% 553-446 (999) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 44% 391-500 (891) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 45% 675-821 (1496) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30 | 70% 1911-827 (2738) |
AL almach | Downavg 82.5¢ | $839.71 | $966.2 | +$126.48 | 52% 1730-1622 (3352) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 87.6¢ | $562.93 | $623.96 | +$61.03 | 52% 1741-1612 (3353) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.7¢ | $534.07 | $499.99 | -$8.55 | 54% 4416-3739 (8155) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 67¢ | $250.09 | $244.04 | -$6.05 | 55% 4670-3764 (8434) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 31.4¢ | $156.77 | — | -$156.77 | 47% 1221-1358 (2579) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 66.5¢ | $354.55 | $211.11 | -$14.98 | 51% 2638-2500 (5138) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 73.9¢ | $191.3 | $178.5 | -$12.79 | 59% 1201-851 (2052) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.4¢ | $59.37 | — | -$59.37 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73.9¢ | $131.92 | $178.5 | +$46.58 | |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 89.7¢ | $154.3 | $103.51 | -$50.79 | 50% 4723-4777 (9500) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.5¢ | $61.4 | — | -$61.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 89.7¢ | $92.9 | $103.51 | +$10.61 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 93¢ | $227.44 | $150 | -$4.63 | 35% 862-1595 (2457) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $85.92 | $74.96 | -$10.96 | 52% 5253-4908 (10161) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 17.6¢ | $34.95 | — | -$34.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68¢ | $50.97 | $74.96 | +$23.99 | |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 98¢ | $132.04 | $132 | -$0.04 | 40% 1813-2746 (4559) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 79.4¢ | $99.25 | $125 | +$25.75 | 48% 2616-2848 (5464) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.5¢ | $34.65 | — | -$34.65 | 45% 914-1096 (2010) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $72.3 | $85 | +$12.7 | 48% 2635-2900 (5535) |
 ohioism | Downavg 78.1¢ | $126.67 | $162.2 | +$35.53 | 47% 2539-2808 (5347) |
LI Little-bigARB<$100 | Upavg 34.7¢ | $70.9 | $50 | -$20.9 | 51% 1178-1119 (2297) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.7¢ | $36.4 | — | -$36.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69¢ | $34.5 | $50 | +$15.5 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 76.6¢ | $59.46 | $77.63 | +$18.17 | 66% 4119-2085 (6204) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 81.3¢ | $122.4 | $70 | -$35.6 | 44% 870-1102 (1972) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Downavg 84.9¢ | $74.59 | $62.67 | -$11.92 | 50% 921-917 (1838) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 34.6¢ | $112.2 | — | -$94.93 | 53% 1041-937 (1978) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $50.98 | $31.49 | -$19.49 | 48% 868-931 (1799) |
Invested
$8,780
Value
—
PnL
$-8.2K
Record
55%
553-446 (999)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
44%
391-500 (891)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
45%
675-821 (1496)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30
Record
70%
1911-827 (2738)
Invested
$839.71
Value
$966.2
PnL
+$126.48
Record
52%
1730-1622 (3352)
Invested
$562.93
Value
$623.96
PnL
+$61.03
Record
52%
1741-1612 (3353)
Invested
$534.07
Value
$499.99
PnL
-$8.55
Record
54%
4416-3739 (8155)
Invested
$250.09
Value
$244.04
PnL
-$6.05
Record
55%
4670-3764 (8434)
Invested
$156.77
Value
—
PnL
-$156.77
Record
47%
1221-1358 (2579)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$354.55
Value
$211.11
PnL
-$14.98
Record
51%
2638-2500 (5138)
Invested
$191.3
Value
$178.5
PnL
-$12.79
Record
59%
1201-851 (2052)
Both legs:
Invested
$154.3
Value
$103.51
PnL
-$50.79
Record
50%
4723-4777 (9500)
Both legs:
Invested
$227.44
Value
$150
PnL
-$4.63
Record
35%
862-1595 (2457)
Invested
$85.92
Value
$74.96
PnL
-$10.96
Record
52%
5253-4908 (10161)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$132.04
Value
$132
PnL
-$0.04
Record
40%
1813-2746 (4559)
Invested
$99.25
Value
$125
PnL
+$25.75
Record
48%
2616-2848 (5464)
Invested
$34.65
Value
—
PnL
-$34.65
Record
45%
914-1096 (2010)
Invested
$72.3
Value
$85
PnL
+$12.7
Record
48%
2635-2900 (5535)
ohioismInvested
$126.67
Value
$162.2
PnL
+$35.53
Record
47%
2539-2808 (5347)
Invested
$70.9
Value
$50
PnL
-$20.9
Record
51%
1178-1119 (2297)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.46
Value
$77.63
PnL
+$18.17
Record
66%
4119-2085 (6204)
Invested
$122.4
Value
$70
PnL
-$35.6
Record
44%
870-1102 (1972)
Invested
$74.59
Value
$62.67
PnL
-$11.92
Record
50%
921-917 (1838)
Invested
$112.2
Value
—
PnL
-$94.93
Record
53%
1041-937 (1978)
Invested
$50.98
Value
$31.49
PnL
-$19.49
Record
48%
868-931 (1799)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
almach
Down — $966.2
mo-money
Down — $623.96
ByteBadger92
Down — $499.99
stepahead
Down — $244.04
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $211.11