Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
66
Up 37%
6 arb excluded
$6.1K
$-16.8K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 66 top traders (35%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%47 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-8.1K | 55% 553-446 (999) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 44% 391-500 (891) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 675-821 (1496) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 98.9¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$5.58 | 51% 2283-2160 (4443) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 75.2¢ | $553.13 | $582.51 | +$29.37 | 59% 1201-851 (2052) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.3¢ | $553.31 | $500.77 | +$1.46 | 54% 4416-3739 (8155) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 75¢ | $485.52 | $398.13 | +$16.36 | 35% 862-1595 (2457) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 73.6¢ | $247.89 | $290.2 | +$42.31 | 50% 4723-4777 (9500) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 40.3¢ | $440.12 | — | -$440.12 | 47% 1221-1358 (2579) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 67.7¢ | $214.44 | $214.6 | +$0.16 | 55% 4670-3764 (8434) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $139.4 | $200 | +$60.6 | 48% 1231-1348 (2579) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43¢ | $86 | $200 | +$114 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.6¢ | $53.4 | — | -$53.4 | |
 OhioAI | Downavg 68.8¢ | $191.39 | $177.85 | -$13.54 | 50% 914-896 (1810) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 62.8¢ | $135.25 | $185.58 | +$50.33 | 51% 923-892 (1815) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 80.8¢ | $129.77 | $128.44 | -$1.33 | 53% 1041-937 (1978) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 81¢ | $99.7 | $109.02 | +$13.49 | 66% 4119-2085 (6204) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 98¢ | $98 | $100 | +$2 | 51% 1178-1119 (2297) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 73¢ | $127.12 | $94.69 | -$24.47 | 52% 5253-4908 (10161) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100 | Downavg 81.5¢ | $102.86 | $85 | -$17.86 | 48% 2616-2848 (5464) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81.5¢ | $69.25 | $85 | +$15.75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.2¢ | $33.61 | — | -$33.61 | |
 ohioism | Downavg 68.6¢ | $87.05 | $110 | +$22.95 | 47% 2539-2808 (5347) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 31.4¢ | $73.05 | $68.41 | -$4.63 | 45% 914-1096 (2010) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.2¢ | $32.29 | $68.41 | +$36.12 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.4¢ | $40.76 | — | -$40.76 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Downavg 56.6¢ | $80.09 | $83.81 | +$3.72 | 51% 922-899 (1821) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.6¢ | $47.46 | $83.81 | +$36.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41¢ | $32.63 | — | -$32.63 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $96.92 | $83.99 | +$0.35 | 59% 1144-798 (1942) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 61.5¢ | $116.86 | $77 | -$12.79 | 62% 4812-2936 (7748) |
RA rabadabadooARB<$100 | Downavg 64.9¢ | $70.43 | $69.53 | -$0.9 | 46% 1752-2030 (3782) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.9¢ | $45.1 | $69.53 | +$24.43 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.7¢ | $25.33 | — | -$25.33 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 26.7¢ | $147.97 | — | -$126.67 | 44% 870-1102 (1972) |
Invested
$8,668
Value
—
PnL
$-8.1K
Record
55%
553-446 (999)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
44%
391-500 (891)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
675-821 (1496)
Invested
$1,949.84
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$5.58
Record
51%
2283-2160 (4443)
Invested
$553.13
Value
$582.51
PnL
+$29.37
Record
59%
1201-851 (2052)
Invested
$553.31
Value
$500.77
PnL
+$1.46
Record
54%
4416-3739 (8155)
Invested
$485.52
Value
$398.13
PnL
+$16.36
Record
35%
862-1595 (2457)
Invested
$247.89
Value
$290.2
PnL
+$42.31
Record
50%
4723-4777 (9500)
Invested
$440.12
Value
—
PnL
-$440.12
Record
47%
1221-1358 (2579)
Invested
$214.44
Value
$214.6
PnL
+$0.16
Record
55%
4670-3764 (8434)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$139.4
Value
$200
PnL
+$60.6
Record
48%
1231-1348 (2579)
Both legs:
OhioAIInvested
$191.39
Value
$177.85
PnL
-$13.54
Record
50%
914-896 (1810)
Invested
$135.25
Value
$185.58
PnL
+$50.33
Record
51%
923-892 (1815)
Invested
$129.77
Value
$128.44
PnL
-$1.33
Record
53%
1041-937 (1978)
Invested
$99.7
Value
$109.02
PnL
+$13.49
Record
66%
4119-2085 (6204)
Invested
$98
Value
$100
PnL
+$2
Record
51%
1178-1119 (2297)
Invested
$127.12
Value
$94.69
PnL
-$24.47
Record
52%
5253-4908 (10161)
Invested
$102.86
Value
$85
PnL
-$17.86
Record
48%
2616-2848 (5464)
Both legs:
ohioismInvested
$87.05
Value
$110
PnL
+$22.95
Record
47%
2539-2808 (5347)
Invested
$73.05
Value
$68.41
PnL
-$4.63
Record
45%
914-1096 (2010)
Both legs:
Invested
$80.09
Value
$83.81
PnL
+$3.72
Record
51%
922-899 (1821)
Both legs:
Invested
$96.92
Value
$83.99
PnL
+$0.35
Record
59%
1144-798 (1942)
Invested
$116.86
Value
$77
PnL
-$12.79
Record
62%
4812-2936 (7748)
Invested
$70.43
Value
$69.53
PnL
-$0.9
Record
46%
1752-2030 (3782)
Both legs:
Invested
$147.97
Value
—
PnL
-$126.67
Record
44%
870-1102 (1972)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.0K
Bonereaper
Down — $582.51
ByteBadger92
Down — $500.77
ply-pm0
Down — $398.13
asdcaxz
Down — $290.2
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
Down — $214.6