Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
38 of 49 top Polymarket traders hold Down (78%) · Down at 100¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Down
49
Down 78%
$23.4K
-$49.31
65.9¢ → 99.5¢
+51% since entry · 38 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
38 of 49 top traders (78%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.5K | $8.1K | +$13.46 | 55% 546-441 (987) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$42.81 | 44% 388-491 (879) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$5.57 | 45% 670-814 (1484) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$7.93 | 70% 1893-822 (2715) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 85.5¢ | $560.51 | $566.9 | +$6.38 | 52% 1731-1604 (3335) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 86¢ | $508.06 | $511.01 | +$2.95 | 48% 1223-1345 (2568) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $528.89 | $494.78 | +$0.47 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 87.5¢ | $486.61 | $466.43 | -$20.18 | 55% 4661-3757 (8418) |
AL almach | Downavg 86¢ | $430 | $432.5 | +$2.5 | 52% 1719-1616 (3335) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 86¢ | $441.97 | $345.59 | -$96.38 | 59% 1194-845 (2039) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 73.6¢ | $231.9 | $234.97 | +$3.07 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
BO bosona | Downavg 91.4¢ | $214.87 | $227.17 | +$12.3 | 51% 4983-4719 (9702) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 98.4¢ | $218.37 | $212.02 | -$6.35 | 40% 1799-2733 (4532) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 84.5¢ | $181.12 | $188.14 | +$21.88 | 52% 5242-4903 (10145) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 92¢ | $119.86 | $108.42 | -$11.44 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $83.79 | $81.65 | -$2.14 | 98% 4661-98 (4759) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 90.4¢ | $78.91 | $74.88 | -$4.03 | 35% 859-1586 (2445) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 93.4¢ | $71.46 | $73.07 | +$1.61 | 66% 4097-2069 (6166) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 87.1¢ | $66.03 | $70.09 | +$4.06 | 39% 821-1310 (2131) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.7¢ | $51.67 | $68.36 | +$16.69 | 47% 1217-1346 (2563) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 91.9¢ | $64.88 | $67.04 | +$2.16 | 54% 1099-952 (2051) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $60.48 | $58.28 | -$2.2 | 51% 918-892 (1810) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Downavg 88.3¢ | $54.47 | $57.53 | +$3.06 | 44% 865-1095 (1960) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100 | Downavg 85.9¢ | $60.81 | $48.49 | -$12.32 | 51% 918-886 (1804) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 89.5¢ | $43.32 | $47.1 | +$3.78 | 59% 1127-779 (1906) |
Invested
$8,512
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$13.46
Record
55%
546-441 (987)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$42.81
Record
44%
388-491 (879)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$5.57
Record
45%
670-814 (1484)
BoneOhioInvested
$1,570.13
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$7.93
Record
70%
1893-822 (2715)
Invested
$560.51
Value
$566.9
PnL
+$6.38
Record
52%
1731-1604 (3335)
machinelearnedInvested
$508.06
Value
$511.01
PnL
+$2.95
Record
48%
1223-1345 (2568)
Invested
$528.89
Value
$494.78
PnL
+$0.47
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Invested
$486.61
Value
$466.43
PnL
-$20.18
Record
55%
4661-3757 (8418)
Invested
$430
Value
$432.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
52%
1719-1616 (3335)
Invested
$441.97
Value
$345.59
PnL
-$96.38
Record
59%
1194-845 (2039)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$231.9
Value
$234.97
PnL
+$3.07
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
Invested
$214.87
Value
$227.17
PnL
+$12.3
Record
51%
4983-4719 (9702)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$218.37
Value
$212.02
PnL
-$6.35
Record
40%
1799-2733 (4532)
Invested
$181.12
Value
$188.14
PnL
+$21.88
Record
52%
5242-4903 (10145)
Invested
$119.86
Value
$108.42
PnL
-$11.44
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
Invested
$83.79
Value
$81.65
PnL
-$2.14
Record
98%
4661-98 (4759)
Invested
$78.91
Value
$74.88
PnL
-$4.03
Record
35%
859-1586 (2445)
Invested
$71.46
Value
$73.07
PnL
+$1.61
Record
66%
4097-2069 (6166)
Invested
$66.03
Value
$70.09
PnL
+$4.06
Record
39%
821-1310 (2131)
Invested
$51.67
Value
$68.36
PnL
+$16.69
Record
47%
1217-1346 (2563)
Invested
$64.88
Value
$67.04
PnL
+$2.16
Record
54%
1099-952 (2051)
Invested
$60.48
Value
$58.28
PnL
-$2.2
Record
51%
918-892 (1810)
Invested
$54.47
Value
$57.53
PnL
+$3.06
Record
44%
865-1095 (1960)
Invested
$60.81
Value
$48.49
PnL
-$12.32
Record
51%
918-886 (1804)
Invested
$43.32
Value
$47.1
PnL
+$3.78
Record
59%
1127-779 (1906)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $8.1K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.9K
BoneOhio
Down — $1.6K
mo-money
Down — $566.9
machinelearned
Down — $511.01
ByteBadger92
Down — $494.78
stepahead
Down — $466.43
almach
Down — $432.5
Bonereaper
Down — $345.59