Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

$-6.6K

Smart Money Signal

33 of 50 top traders (66%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up33 traders

Total Value$18.2K

Total Shares18,227

Combined PnL+$567.76

Down17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,822

Combined PnL$-7.2K

Up — 66%Down — 34%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.3K	+$63.45	55% 546-441 (987)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.1K	44% 388-491 (879)
TH THG.	Upavg 98.8¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$41.3	99% 981-7 (988)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-2.5K	45% 670-814 (1484)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 70.6¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$157.51	59% 1194-845 (2039)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$27.22	51% 2264-2146 (4410)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 38.6¢	$654.14	$588.87	-$65.27	47% 1217-1346 (2563)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$262.13	$588.87	+$326.74
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.6¢	$392.01	—	-$392.01
ST stepahead	Upavg 62.4¢	$502.57	$513	+$10.44	55% 4661-3757 (8418)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 53.7¢	$566.98	$493.54	+$1.19	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$374.22	$378	+$3.78	98% 4661-98 (4759)
machinelearned	Upavg 71.1¢	$301.91	$392.1	+$90.19	48% 1223-1345 (2568)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 74.3¢	$274.54	$314.22	+$40.54	52% 5242-4903 (10145)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 72.2¢	$326.79	$316.86	-$9.93	35% 859-1586 (2445)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 30.4¢	$239.41	$208.94	-$30.46	49% 3718-3826 (7544)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$103.16	$208.94	+$105.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.4¢	$136.24	—	-$136.24
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 67.3¢	$238.02	$295.06	+$57.04	50% 4700-4760 (9460)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 34.7¢	$449.01	—	-$250.45	51% 2628-2476 (5104)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 76.7¢	$201.95	$217.13	+$16.72	53% 1036-930 (1966)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 67.3¢	$168.7	$200	+$31.3	51% 489-462 (951)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.3¢	$134.7	$200	+$65.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 34¢	$34	—	-$34
MO mo-money	Upavg 85.2¢	$145.44	$170.71	+$25.28	52% 1731-1604 (3335)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 23¢	$84.77	$55.41	-$29.36	44% 865-1095 (1960)
└ Down leg	Downavg 23¢	$49.52	—	-$49.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.6¢	$35.25	$55.41	+$20.16
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100	Upavg 55.9¢	$88.32	$98.5	+$10.18	51% 936-883 (1819)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 75.2¢	$62.04	$82.5	+$20.46	66% 4097-2069 (6166)
AL almach	Upavg 72¢	$74.13	$102.95	+$28.83	52% 1719-1616 (3335)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$13.76	—	-$13.76	54% 1662-1428 (3090)
OhioAICTR<$100	Downavg 58¢	$98.86	—	-$96.48	51% 909-889 (1798)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,759

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$63.45

Record

55%

546-441 (987)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

44%

388-491 (879)

THG.

Invested

$3,458.7

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$41.3

Record

99%

981-7 (988)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

45%

670-814 (1484)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,112.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$157.51

Record

59%

1194-845 (2039)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$1,155.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$27.22

Record

51%

2264-2146 (4410)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$654.14

Value

$588.87

PnL

-$65.27

Record

47%

1217-1346 (2563)

Both legs:

Up$262.1344.5¢+$326.74

Down$392.0138.6¢-$392.01

stepahead

Invested

$502.57

Value

$513

PnL

+$10.44

Record

55%

4661-3757 (8418)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$566.98

Value

$493.54

PnL

+$1.19

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

hoodquant

Invested

$374.22

Value

$378

PnL

+$3.78

Record

98%

4661-98 (4759)

machinelearned

Invested

$301.91

Value

$392.1

PnL

+$90.19

Record

48%

1223-1345 (2568)

blue.birds

Invested

$274.54

Value

$314.22

PnL

+$40.54

Record

52%

5242-4903 (10145)

ply-pm0

Invested

$326.79

Value

$316.86

PnL

-$9.93

Record

35%

859-1586 (2445)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$239.41

Value

$208.94

PnL

-$30.46

Record

49%

3718-3826 (7544)

Both legs:

Up$103.1649.4¢+$105.78

Down$136.2430.4¢-$136.24

asdcaxz

Invested

$238.02

Value

$295.06

PnL

+$57.04

Record

50%

4700-4760 (9460)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$449.01

Value

—

PnL

-$250.45

Record

51%

2628-2476 (5104)

wzbbb

Invested

$201.95

Value

$217.13

PnL

+$16.72

Record

53%

1036-930 (1966)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$168.7

Value

$200

PnL

+$31.3

Record

51%

489-462 (951)

Both legs:

Up$134.767.3¢+$65.3

Down$3434¢-$34

mo-money

Invested

$145.44

Value

$170.71

PnL

+$25.28

Record

52%

1731-1604 (3335)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$84.77

Value

$55.41

PnL

-$29.36

Record

44%

865-1095 (1960)

Both legs:

Down$49.5223¢-$49.52

Up$35.2563.6¢+$20.16

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100

Invested

$88.32

Value

$98.5

PnL

+$10.18

Record

51%

936-883 (1819)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$62.04

Value

$82.5

PnL

+$20.46

Record

66%

4097-2069 (6166)

almach

Invested

$74.13

Value

$102.95

PnL

+$28.83

Record

52%

1719-1616 (3335)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.76

Value

—

PnL

-$13.76

Record

54%

1662-1428 (3090)

OhioAICTR<$100

Down

Invested

$98.86

Value

—

PnL

-$96.48

Record

51%

909-889 (1798)

Smart Money Signal

33 of 50 top traders (66%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x62aaee02...8ae723

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794781800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $8.3K

+$63.45

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Down — $0

$-4.1K

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$41.3

machine-earning

CTR

Down — $0

$-2.5K

Bonereaper

Up — $1.3K

+$157.51

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.1K

-$27.22

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$65.27

stepahead

Up — $513

+$10.44

ByteBadger92

Up — $493.54

+$1.19

hoodquant

Up — $378

+$3.78

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