Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
56
Up 55%
7 arb excluded
$12.6K
$-16.8K
Smart Money Signal
31 of 56 top traders (55%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed31 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.8K | 55% 546-441 (987) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 44% 388-491 (879) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-2.7K | 45% 670-814 (1484) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$28.91 | 99% 981-7 (988) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 98.8¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$24.54 | 51% 2264-2146 (4410) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 58.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$297.2 | 47% 1217-1346 (2563) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 53.3¢ | $994.84 | $925.53 | +$41.04 | 59% 1194-845 (2039) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $871.59 | $801.24 | -$70.35 | 35% 859-1586 (2445) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 71.5¢ | $651.17 | $599.68 | -$51.49 | 55% 4661-3757 (8418) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 49.9¢ | $692.23 | — | -$661.67 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.6¢ | $533.17 | $495.32 | +$3.71 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $240.33 | — | -$247.69 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.6¢ | $250.72 | $495.32 | +$251.4 | |
 machinelearned | Downavg 59.8¢ | $403.01 | $394.49 | -$8.52 | 48% 1223-1345 (2568) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 45.2¢ | $215.8 | $275.18 | +$59.39 | 49% 3718-3826 (7544) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.2¢ | $91.5 | — | -$91.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.2¢ | $124.3 | $275.18 | +$150.89 | |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 50.7¢ | $298.87 | $299.99 | +$1.12 | 51% 489-462 (951) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $307.56 | $268.67 | +$26.38 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.5¢ | $114.21 | — | -$111.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.8¢ | $131.19 | $268.67 | +$137.98 | |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 76.6¢ | $298.73 | $250.01 | -$48.72 | 52% 5242-4903 (10145) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 58.8¢ | $214.52 | $223 | +$9.47 | 51% 909-889 (1798) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 42.8¢ | $188.54 | $160.77 | -$27.77 | 44% 865-1095 (1960) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.8¢ | $106.96 | — | -$106.96 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.7¢ | $81.57 | $160.77 | +$79.2 | |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 54¢ | $184.74 | $205 | +$23.46 | 45% 909-1089 (1998) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 22.4¢ | $315.73 | — | -$163.53 | 53% 1036-930 (1966) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 55.7¢ | $193.18 | — | -$193.18 | 51% 4983-4719 (9702) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR | Upavg 25.9¢ | $101.1 | — | -$101.1 | 49% 966-1024 (1990) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Upavg 36.6¢ | $121.88 | — | -$121.88 | 51% 936-883 (1819) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 86.8¢ | $169.84 | $149.92 | -$19.92 | 51% 918-892 (1810) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 59.9¢ | $162.01 | — | -$162.01 | 52% 1719-1616 (3335) |
Invested
$8,713
Value
—
PnL
$-7.8K
Record
55%
546-441 (987)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
44%
388-491 (879)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-2.7K
Record
45%
670-814 (1484)
Invested
$2,861.76
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$28.91
Record
99%
981-7 (988)
Invested
$2,089.03
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$24.54
Record
51%
2264-2146 (4410)
Invested
$1,280.69
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$297.2
Record
47%
1217-1346 (2563)
Invested
$994.84
Value
$925.53
PnL
+$41.04
Record
59%
1194-845 (2039)
Invested
$871.59
Value
$801.24
PnL
-$70.35
Record
35%
859-1586 (2445)
Invested
$651.17
Value
$599.68
PnL
-$51.49
Record
55%
4661-3757 (8418)
Invested
$692.23
Value
—
PnL
-$661.67
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
Invested
$533.17
Value
$495.32
PnL
+$3.71
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$403.01
Value
$394.49
PnL
-$8.52
Record
48%
1223-1345 (2568)
Invested
$215.8
Value
$275.18
PnL
+$59.39
Record
49%
3718-3826 (7544)
Both legs:
Invested
$298.87
Value
$299.99
PnL
+$1.12
Record
51%
489-462 (951)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$307.56
Value
$268.67
PnL
+$26.38
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
Both legs:
Invested
$298.73
Value
$250.01
PnL
-$48.72
Record
52%
5242-4903 (10145)
OhioAIInvested
$214.52
Value
$223
PnL
+$9.47
Record
51%
909-889 (1798)
Invested
$188.54
Value
$160.77
PnL
-$27.77
Record
44%
865-1095 (1960)
Both legs:
Invested
$184.74
Value
$205
PnL
+$23.46
Record
45%
909-1089 (1998)
Invested
$315.73
Value
—
PnL
-$163.53
Record
53%
1036-930 (1966)
Invested
$193.18
Value
—
PnL
-$193.18
Record
51%
4983-4719 (9702)
Invested
$101.1
Value
—
PnL
-$101.1
Record
49%
966-1024 (1990)
Invested
$121.88
Value
—
PnL
-$121.88
Record
51%
936-883 (1819)
Invested
$169.84
Value
$149.92
PnL
-$19.92
Record
51%
918-892 (1810)
Invested
$162.01
Value
—
PnL
-$162.01
Record
52%
1719-1616 (3335)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $2.9K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.1K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.6K
Bonereaper
Down — $925.53
ply-pm0
Down — $801.24
stepahead
Down — $599.68
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0