Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 34% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
58
Down 34%
1 arb excluded
$9.1K
$-14.6K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 58 top traders (34%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%35 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-7.2K | 55% 546-441 (987) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.2K | 44% 388-491 (879) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.1K | 45% 670-814 (1484) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 82.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$38.75 | 47% 1217-1346 (2563) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 71.4¢ | $893.73 | $797.51 | +$88.26 | 59% 1194-845 (2039) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $755.25 | $762.88 | +$7.63 | 99% 981-7 (988) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 79.1¢ | $655.42 | $774.71 | +$119.29 | 48% 1223-1345 (2568) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 82.6¢ | $685.53 | $669.96 | -$15.53 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 76.6¢ | $493.42 | $542.34 | +$48.92 | 55% 4661-3757 (8418) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 84.5¢ | $443.76 | $495.42 | +$51.67 | 35% 859-1586 (2445) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 79.5¢ | $487.87 | $483.09 | +$16.83 | 52% 5242-4903 (10145) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $517.93 | $479.1 | +$3.13 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 95.5¢ | $391.02 | $360.62 | -$30.4 | 52% 1731-1604 (3335) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 77.3¢ | $300.27 | $290.45 | -$9.82 | 44% 865-1095 (1960) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 89.4¢ | $321.38 | $304.71 | -$16.18 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 83.3¢ | $236.38 | $175.8 | -$60.58 | 49% 3718-3826 (7544) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 83.3¢ | $146.4 | $175.8 | +$29.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21.7¢ | $89.98 | — | -$89.98 | |
PA Papeasy | Upavg 71.5¢ | $129.56 | $180.94 | +$51.38 | 50% 3900-3846 (7746) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 52¢ | $166.65 | — | -$166.65 | 51% 2264-2146 (4410) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 78.4¢ | $125.65 | $157.86 | +$32.2 | 51% 918-886 (1804) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 91¢ | $149.23 | $149.99 | +$0.76 | 54% 1099-952 (2051) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 80.2¢ | $132.59 | $148.1 | +$15.51 | 51% 936-883 (1819) |
AL Alpharo28 | Upavg 64.5¢ | $128.1 | $140 | +$46 | 58% 513-370 (883) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 80.9¢ | $131.69 | $98 | -$29.34 | 45% 909-1089 (1998) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Upavg 86.7¢ | $89.13 | $92.31 | +$3.18 | 47% 852-955 (1807) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Upavg 94.4¢ | $89.58 | $93.85 | +$4.27 | 50% 918-909 (1827) |
Invested
$8,512
Value
—
PnL
$-7.2K
Record
55%
546-441 (987)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
44%
388-491 (879)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
45%
670-814 (1484)
Invested
$1,165.46
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$38.75
Record
47%
1217-1346 (2563)
Invested
$893.73
Value
$797.51
PnL
+$88.26
Record
59%
1194-845 (2039)
Invested
$755.25
Value
$762.88
PnL
+$7.63
Record
99%
981-7 (988)
machinelearnedInvested
$655.42
Value
$774.71
PnL
+$119.29
Record
48%
1223-1345 (2568)
Invested
$685.53
Value
$669.96
PnL
-$15.53
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
Invested
$493.42
Value
$542.34
PnL
+$48.92
Record
55%
4661-3757 (8418)
Invested
$443.76
Value
$495.42
PnL
+$51.67
Record
35%
859-1586 (2445)
Invested
$487.87
Value
$483.09
PnL
+$16.83
Record
52%
5242-4903 (10145)
Invested
$517.93
Value
$479.1
PnL
+$3.13
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Invested
$391.02
Value
$360.62
PnL
-$30.4
Record
52%
1731-1604 (3335)
Invested
$300.27
Value
$290.45
PnL
-$9.82
Record
44%
865-1095 (1960)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$321.38
Value
$304.71
PnL
-$16.18
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
Invested
$236.38
Value
$175.8
PnL
-$60.58
Record
49%
3718-3826 (7544)
Both legs:
Invested
$129.56
Value
$180.94
PnL
+$51.38
Record
50%
3900-3846 (7746)
Invested
$166.65
Value
—
PnL
-$166.65
Record
51%
2264-2146 (4410)
Invested
$125.65
Value
$157.86
PnL
+$32.2
Record
51%
918-886 (1804)
Invested
$149.23
Value
$149.99
PnL
+$0.76
Record
54%
1099-952 (2051)
Invested
$132.59
Value
$148.1
PnL
+$15.51
Record
51%
936-883 (1819)
Invested
$128.1
Value
$140
PnL
+$46
Record
58%
513-370 (883)
Invested
$131.69
Value
$98
PnL
-$29.34
Record
45%
909-1089 (1998)
Invested
$89.13
Value
$92.31
PnL
+$3.18
Record
47%
852-955 (1807)
Invested
$89.58
Value
$93.85
PnL
+$4.27
Record
50%
918-909 (1827)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.1K
Bonereaper
Up — $797.51
THG.
Up — $762.88
machinelearned
Up — $774.71
asdcaxz
Up — $669.96
stepahead
Up — $542.34
ply-pm0
Up — $495.42