Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
55
Down 29%
$6.7K
$-15.1K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 55 top traders (29%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%35 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.9K | 55% 546-441 (987) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.2K | 44% 388-491 (879) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-2.8K | 45% 670-814 (1484) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 67.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$60.11 | 59% 1194-845 (2039) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 32.3¢ | $615.48 | — | -$615.48 | 47% 1217-1346 (2563) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $593.73 | $606 | +$12.27 | 98% 4661-98 (4759) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.7¢ | $531.53 | $506.01 | +$12.08 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 73.7¢ | $401.78 | $422.06 | +$20.27 | 35% 859-1586 (2445) |
BO bosona | Upavg 87.2¢ | $346.28 | $362.82 | +$16.54 | 51% 4983-4719 (9702) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 73.2¢ | $377.81 | $374.55 | -$3.26 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 73.4¢ | $329.05 | $341.53 | +$12.48 | 55% 4661-3757 (8418) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 60.7¢ | $263.17 | $326.75 | +$63.58 | 52% 5242-4903 (10145) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 68.4¢ | $535.75 | $311.39 | +$9.57 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 61.6¢ | $186.07 | $302.03 | +$115.95 | 48% 1223-1345 (2568) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 75¢ | $281.69 | $271.31 | -$10.37 | 49% 3718-3826 (7544) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 71.8¢ | $129.25 | $156.12 | +$26.86 | 44% 865-1095 (1960) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 66.1¢ | $98.31 | $142.06 | +$43.75 | 51% 918-886 (1804) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 60.5¢ | $98.51 | $120.99 | +$22.48 | 51% 909-889 (1798) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $69.11 | $100 | +$30.89 | 54% 4704-4079 (8783) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 98¢ | $98 | $100 | +$2 | 51% 1171-1112 (2283) |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 81.9¢ | $83.43 | $96.3 | +$12.87 | 52% 1719-1616 (3335) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 73.8¢ | $72.02 | $94.71 | +$22.68 | 48% 2593-2832 (5425) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 56¢ | $76.69 | $136.94 | +$60.25 | 51% 2264-2146 (4410) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 53.1¢ | $56.95 | $62.93 | +$5.98 | 52% 1731-1604 (3335) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 55.9¢ | $67.93 | $65.41 | -$2.53 | 49% 966-1024 (1990) |
Invested
$8,829
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
55%
546-441 (987)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
44%
388-491 (879)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-2.8K
Record
45%
670-814 (1484)
Invested
$1,099.5
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$60.11
Record
59%
1194-845 (2039)
Invested
$615.48
Value
—
PnL
-$615.48
Record
47%
1217-1346 (2563)
Invested
$593.73
Value
$606
PnL
+$12.27
Record
98%
4661-98 (4759)
Invested
$531.53
Value
$506.01
PnL
+$12.08
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Invested
$401.78
Value
$422.06
PnL
+$20.27
Record
35%
859-1586 (2445)
Invested
$346.28
Value
$362.82
PnL
+$16.54
Record
51%
4983-4719 (9702)
Invested
$377.81
Value
$374.55
PnL
-$3.26
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
Invested
$329.05
Value
$341.53
PnL
+$12.48
Record
55%
4661-3757 (8418)
Invested
$263.17
Value
$326.75
PnL
+$63.58
Record
52%
5242-4903 (10145)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$535.75
Value
$311.39
PnL
+$9.57
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
machinelearnedInvested
$186.07
Value
$302.03
PnL
+$115.95
Record
48%
1223-1345 (2568)
Invested
$281.69
Value
$271.31
PnL
-$10.37
Record
49%
3718-3826 (7544)
Invested
$129.25
Value
$156.12
PnL
+$26.86
Record
44%
865-1095 (1960)
Invested
$98.31
Value
$142.06
PnL
+$43.75
Record
51%
918-886 (1804)
OhioAIInvested
$98.51
Value
$120.99
PnL
+$22.48
Record
51%
909-889 (1798)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$69.11
Value
$100
PnL
+$30.89
Record
54%
4704-4079 (8783)
Invested
$98
Value
$100
PnL
+$2
Record
51%
1171-1112 (2283)
Invested
$83.43
Value
$96.3
PnL
+$12.87
Record
52%
1719-1616 (3335)
Invested
$72.02
Value
$94.71
PnL
+$22.68
Record
48%
2593-2832 (5425)
Invested
$76.69
Value
$136.94
PnL
+$60.25
Record
51%
2264-2146 (4410)
Invested
$56.95
Value
$62.93
PnL
+$5.98
Record
52%
1731-1604 (3335)
Invested
$67.93
Value
$65.41
PnL
-$2.53
Record
49%
966-1024 (1990)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $606
ByteBadger92
Up — $506.01
ply-pm0
Up — $422.06
bosona
Up — $362.82
asdcaxz
Up — $374.55