Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Up 61%
2 arb excluded
$17.0K
$-8.6K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 57 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%39 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $7.9K | -$13.35 | 55% 546-441 (987) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 44% 388-491 (879) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 981-7 (988) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.2K | 45% 670-814 (1484) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $905.52 | $924 | +$18.48 | 98% 4661-98 (4759) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$897.25 | 52% 3978-3687 (7665) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 79.8¢ | $721.28 | $728.01 | +$9.54 | 59% 1194-845 (2039) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.3¢ | $532.77 | $500.01 | +$0.09 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 83.7¢ | $406.69 | $406.1 | -$0.59 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 42.4¢ | $403.58 | $285.14 | -$118.44 | 47% 1217-1346 (2563) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.4¢ | $271.67 | — | -$271.67 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.3¢ | $131.92 | $285.14 | +$153.23 | |
ST stepahead | Upavg 63.8¢ | $356.4 | $313.57 | -$42.83 | 55% 4661-3757 (8418) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 87.9¢ | $265.23 | $286.8 | +$21.57 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
AL almach | Upavg 97¢ | $303.86 | $276.01 | -$27.85 | 52% 1719-1616 (3335) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 80.3¢ | $304.49 | $245.26 | -$59.22 | 44% 865-1095 (1960) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 80.8¢ | $173.16 | $192.06 | +$18.9 | 35% 859-1586 (2445) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 66.2¢ | $144.72 | $142.85 | +$30.88 | 52% 5242-4903 (10145) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 98¢ | $132.21 | $132 | -$0.21 | 40% 1799-2733 (4532) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 79.3¢ | $113.24 | $129.08 | +$15.84 | 50% 918-909 (1827) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 82¢ | $123 | $150 | +$27 | 70% 1893-822 (2715) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 71.3¢ | $95.4 | $89.37 | +$26.37 | 53% 1036-930 (1966) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 67.9¢ | $84.39 | $90 | +$5.61 | 47% 2520-2793 (5313) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $143.85 | $65 | -$78.85 | 45% 909-1089 (1998) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 85.2¢ | $55.35 | $65 | +$9.65 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34¢ | $88.5 | — | -$88.5 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 92.9¢ | $84.83 | $83.85 | -$0.98 | 54% 1099-952 (2051) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $48.58 | $65.03 | +$16.45 | 48% 1223-1345 (2568) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 82.8¢ | $43.21 | $52.16 | +$8.95 | 54% 4704-4079 (8783) |
Invested
$8,664
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$13.35
Record
55%
546-441 (987)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
44%
388-491 (879)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
981-7 (988)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.2K
Record
45%
670-814 (1484)
Invested
$905.52
Value
$924
PnL
+$18.48
Record
98%
4661-98 (4759)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$897.25
Record
52%
3978-3687 (7665)
Invested
$721.28
Value
$728.01
PnL
+$9.54
Record
59%
1194-845 (2039)
Invested
$532.77
Value
$500.01
PnL
+$0.09
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Invested
$406.69
Value
$406.1
PnL
-$0.59
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
Invested
$403.58
Value
$285.14
PnL
-$118.44
Record
47%
1217-1346 (2563)
Both legs:
Invested
$356.4
Value
$313.57
PnL
-$42.83
Record
55%
4661-3757 (8418)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$265.23
Value
$286.8
PnL
+$21.57
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
Invested
$303.86
Value
$276.01
PnL
-$27.85
Record
52%
1719-1616 (3335)
Invested
$304.49
Value
$245.26
PnL
-$59.22
Record
44%
865-1095 (1960)
Invested
$173.16
Value
$192.06
PnL
+$18.9
Record
35%
859-1586 (2445)
Invested
$144.72
Value
$142.85
PnL
+$30.88
Record
52%
5242-4903 (10145)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$132.21
Value
$132
PnL
-$0.21
Record
40%
1799-2733 (4532)
Invested
$113.24
Value
$129.08
PnL
+$15.84
Record
50%
918-909 (1827)
BoneOhioInvested
$123
Value
$150
PnL
+$27
Record
70%
1893-822 (2715)
Invested
$95.4
Value
$89.37
PnL
+$26.37
Record
53%
1036-930 (1966)
ohioism<$100Invested
$84.39
Value
$90
PnL
+$5.61
Record
47%
2520-2793 (5313)
Invested
$143.85
Value
$65
PnL
-$78.85
Record
45%
909-1089 (1998)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.83
Value
$83.85
PnL
-$0.98
Record
54%
1099-952 (2051)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$48.58
Value
$65.03
PnL
+$16.45
Record
48%
1223-1345 (2568)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$43.21
Value
$52.16
PnL
+$8.95
Record
54%
4704-4079 (8783)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.9K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $924
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $728.01
ByteBadger92
Up — $500.01
asdcaxz
Up — $406.1
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded