Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 34% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
50
Down 35%
5 arb excluded
$8.4K
$-17.7K
Smart Money Signal
17 of 50 top traders (34%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.6K | 55% 546-441 (987) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.1K | 44% 388-491 (879) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.2K | 45% 670-814 (1484) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$23.66 | 99% 981-7 (988) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 75.2¢ | $1.9K | — | $-1.9K | 59% 1194-845 (2039) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 61.1¢ | $611.77 | — | -$611.77 | 55% 4661-3757 (8418) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $443.74 | $459.35 | +$15.61 | 47% 1217-1346 (2563) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43¢ | $354.15 | — | -$354.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.5¢ | $89.59 | $459.35 | +$369.76 | |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 41.6¢ | $449.4 | $520.82 | +$101.45 | 53% 1036-930 (1966) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 43.4¢ | $428.06 | $512.71 | +$84.65 | 52% 5242-4903 (10145) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 51.4¢ | $562.08 | — | -$511.67 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 84.5¢ | $576.28 | — | -$576.28 | 48% 1223-1345 (2568) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 60.2¢ | $440.03 | $422.38 | -$10.63 | 35% 859-1586 (2445) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 69.7¢ | $391.05 | $450.25 | +$59.2 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.4¢ | $177.42 | $450.25 | +$272.84 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.7¢ | $213.64 | — | -$213.64 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $315.56 | $322 | +$6.44 | 98% 4661-98 (4759) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 36.8¢ | $132.32 | $309.81 | +$177.49 | 45% 909-1089 (1998) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 44.4¢ | $231.06 | $263.42 | +$32.36 | 44% 865-1095 (1960) |
 ohioism | Upavg 59.7¢ | $139.21 | $214.52 | +$75.64 | 47% 2520-2793 (5313) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 50.3¢ | $275.24 | — | -$99.35 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
AL almach | Upavg 33.9¢ | $140.65 | $267.35 | +$126.69 | 52% 1719-1616 (3335) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 80.4¢ | $340.83 | — | -$340.83 | 51% 4983-4719 (9702) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 16.2¢ | $113.34 | $699.65 | +$586.31 | 51% 2264-2146 (4410) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 75.9¢ | $129.2 | $164.62 | +$35.42 | 48% 2621-2880 (5501) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 73.1¢ | $116.84 | $114.95 | +$1.85 | 66% 4097-2069 (6166) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Upavg 36.6¢ | $110.84 | $163.99 | +$53.15 | 51% 909-889 (1798) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.6¢ | $60.02 | $163.99 | +$103.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.6¢ | $50.82 | — | -$50.82 | |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 70.2¢ | $124.34 | $104.64 | -$19.7 | 51% 489-462 (951) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.7¢ | $33.14 | $104.64 | +$71.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.2¢ | $91.2 | — | -$91.2 |
Invested
$8,602
Value
—
PnL
$-7.6K
Record
55%
546-441 (987)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.1K
Record
44%
388-491 (879)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.2K
Record
45%
670-814 (1484)
Invested
$2,342.25
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$23.66
Record
99%
981-7 (988)
Invested
$1,859.24
Value
—
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
59%
1194-845 (2039)
Invested
$611.77
Value
—
PnL
-$611.77
Record
55%
4661-3757 (8418)
Invested
$443.74
Value
$459.35
PnL
+$15.61
Record
47%
1217-1346 (2563)
Both legs:
Invested
$449.4
Value
$520.82
PnL
+$101.45
Record
53%
1036-930 (1966)
Invested
$428.06
Value
$512.71
PnL
+$84.65
Record
52%
5242-4903 (10145)
Invested
$562.08
Value
—
PnL
-$511.67
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$576.28
Value
—
PnL
-$576.28
Record
48%
1223-1345 (2568)
Invested
$440.03
Value
$422.38
PnL
-$10.63
Record
35%
859-1586 (2445)
Invested
$391.05
Value
$450.25
PnL
+$59.2
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
Both legs:
Invested
$315.56
Value
$322
PnL
+$6.44
Record
98%
4661-98 (4759)
Invested
$132.32
Value
$309.81
PnL
+$177.49
Record
45%
909-1089 (1998)
Invested
$231.06
Value
$263.42
PnL
+$32.36
Record
44%
865-1095 (1960)
ohioismInvested
$139.21
Value
$214.52
PnL
+$75.64
Record
47%
2520-2793 (5313)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$275.24
Value
—
PnL
-$99.35
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
Invested
$140.65
Value
$267.35
PnL
+$126.69
Record
52%
1719-1616 (3335)
Invested
$340.83
Value
—
PnL
-$340.83
Record
51%
4983-4719 (9702)
Invested
$113.34
Value
$699.65
PnL
+$586.31
Record
51%
2264-2146 (4410)
Invested
$129.2
Value
$164.62
PnL
+$35.42
Record
48%
2621-2880 (5501)
Invested
$116.84
Value
$114.95
PnL
+$1.85
Record
66%
4097-2069 (6166)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$110.84
Value
$163.99
PnL
+$53.15
Record
51%
909-889 (1798)
Both legs:
Invested
$124.34
Value
$104.64
PnL
-$19.7
Record
51%
489-462 (951)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $2.4K
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
Up — $520.82
blue.birds
Up — $512.71
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0