Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
46
Down 63%
2 arb excluded
$13.9K
$-8.8K
Smart Money Signal
29 of 46 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-8.0K | 55% 546-441 (987) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$7.84 | 44% 388-491 (879) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | -$33.45 | 45% 670-814 (1484) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.73 | 98% 4661-98 (4759) |
BO bosona | Downavg 92.3¢ | $765.66 | $829.39 | +$63.73 | 51% 4983-4719 (9702) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $651.18 | $657.76 | +$6.58 | 99% 981-7 (988) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 92.4¢ | $542.35 | $586.91 | +$44.56 | 52% 1731-1604 (3335) |
AL almach | Downavg 92.7¢ | $505.44 | $545.43 | +$40 | 52% 1719-1616 (3335) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.9¢ | $507.2 | — | -$495.03 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $157.63 | $184.48 | +$26.85 | 51% 2264-2146 (4410) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57¢ | $105.15 | $184.48 | +$79.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32¢ | $52.48 | — | -$52.48 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 70.6¢ | $126.11 | $167.09 | +$40.98 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 75.3¢ | $144.1 | $138.63 | -$5.47 | 44% 865-1095 (1960) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 82.2¢ | $101.11 | $91.71 | -$9.4 | 52% 5242-4903 (10145) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 82.2¢ | $75.35 | $91.71 | +$16.36 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 10.5¢ | $25.76 | — | -$25.76 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $162.01 | $100 | -$62.02 | 35% 859-1586 (2445) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 99¢ | $135 | $100 | -$35 | 51% 489-462 (951) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 79.8¢ | $69.24 | $59.98 | -$9.26 | 49% 966-1024 (1990) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $55.75 | $60 | +$4.25 | 59% 1194-845 (2039) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 61.8¢ | $47.42 | $60 | +$12.58 | 51% 909-889 (1798) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $10.02 | — | -$10.02 | 54% 1662-1428 (3090) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $47.54 | $50.61 | +$3.07 | 48% 2621-2880 (5501) |
ST stepaheadCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.6¢ | $93.84 | — | -$93.84 | 55% 4661-3757 (8418) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 86.9¢ | $41.44 | $45 | +$3.56 | 54% 1099-952 (2051) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 93.6¢ | $46.63 | $48.53 | +$1.9 | 66% 4097-2069 (6166) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $22.19 | $39.98 | +$17.79 | 48% 862-927 (1789) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 35.3¢ | $155.1 | — | -$155.1 | 47% 1217-1346 (2563) |
Invested
$8,700
Value
—
PnL
$-8.0K
Record
55%
546-441 (987)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$7.84
Record
44%
388-491 (879)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$33.45
Record
45%
670-814 (1484)
Invested
$1,062.3
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.73
Record
98%
4661-98 (4759)
Invested
$765.66
Value
$829.39
PnL
+$63.73
Record
51%
4983-4719 (9702)
Invested
$651.18
Value
$657.76
PnL
+$6.58
Record
99%
981-7 (988)
Invested
$542.35
Value
$586.91
PnL
+$44.56
Record
52%
1731-1604 (3335)
Invested
$505.44
Value
$545.43
PnL
+$40
Record
52%
1719-1616 (3335)
Invested
$507.2
Value
—
PnL
-$495.03
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Invested
$157.63
Value
$184.48
PnL
+$26.85
Record
51%
2264-2146 (4410)
Both legs:
Invested
$126.11
Value
$167.09
PnL
+$40.98
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
Invested
$144.1
Value
$138.63
PnL
-$5.47
Record
44%
865-1095 (1960)
Invested
$101.11
Value
$91.71
PnL
-$9.4
Record
52%
5242-4903 (10145)
Both legs:
Invested
$162.01
Value
$100
PnL
-$62.02
Record
35%
859-1586 (2445)
Invested
$135
Value
$100
PnL
-$35
Record
51%
489-462 (951)
Invested
$69.24
Value
$59.98
PnL
-$9.26
Record
49%
966-1024 (1990)
Invested
$55.75
Value
$60
PnL
+$4.25
Record
59%
1194-845 (2039)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$47.42
Value
$60
PnL
+$12.58
Record
51%
909-889 (1798)
Invested
$10.02
Value
—
PnL
-$10.02
Record
54%
1662-1428 (3090)
Invested
$47.54
Value
$50.61
PnL
+$3.07
Record
48%
2621-2880 (5501)
Invested
$93.84
Value
—
PnL
-$93.84
Record
55%
4661-3757 (8418)
Invested
$41.44
Value
$45
PnL
+$3.56
Record
54%
1099-952 (2051)
Invested
$46.63
Value
$48.53
PnL
+$1.9
Record
66%
4097-2069 (6166)
Invested
$22.19
Value
$39.98
PnL
+$17.79
Record
48%
862-927 (1789)
Invested
$155.1
Value
—
PnL
-$155.1
Record
47%
1217-1346 (2563)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.8K
hoodquant
Down — $1.1K
bosona
Down — $829.39
THG.
Down — $657.76
mo-money
Down — $586.91
almach
Down — $545.43
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded