Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Up 79%
10 arb excluded
$24.0K
$-8.5K
Smart Money Signal
42 of 53 top traders (79%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $7.9K | -$18.3 | 55% 546-441 (987) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $7.9K | +$4.2K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $4.1K | — | $-4.2K | |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 44% 388-491 (879) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 45% 670-814 (1484) |
TH THG. | Upavg 98.7¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$46.39 | 99% 981-7 (988) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 84.2¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$51.55 | 47% 1217-1346 (2563) |
AL almach | Upavg 91.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$83.26 | 52% 1719-1616 (3335) |
BO bosona | Upavg 83.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$156.23 | 51% 4983-4719 (9702) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 80¢ | $880.28 | $1.1K | +$196.44 | 52% 1731-1604 (3335) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 99¢ | $990 | $1.0K | +$10 | 50% 1799-1825 (3624) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 11.8¢ | $231.26 | — | -$231.26 | 48% 1223-1345 (2568) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 73.6¢ | $624.11 | $569.9 | -$50.01 | 59% 1194-845 (2039) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 80.9¢ | $568.18 | $522.23 | -$42.62 | 44% 865-1095 (1960) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.2¢ | $546.44 | $488.4 | +$5.05 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 86.6¢ | $526.59 | $453.49 | -$73.1 | 35% 859-1586 (2445) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 80.4¢ | $313.6 | $318.58 | +$4.98 | 55% 4661-3757 (8418) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 78.4¢ | $307.77 | $299.97 | -$7.81 | 51% 489-462 (951) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Upavg 72.5¢ | $260.63 | $245.6 | -$15.03 | 52% 5242-4903 (10145) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.5¢ | $178.14 | $245.6 | +$67.45 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.2¢ | $82.49 | — | -$82.49 | |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 86.5¢ | $290.52 | $251.57 | -$26.23 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
PB PBot-6ARB<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $241.88 | $256.24 | +$14.35 | 50% 1010-1000 (2010) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54¢ | $138.4 | $256.24 | +$117.83 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.8¢ | $103.48 | — | -$103.48 | |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 86.7¢ | $220.89 | $248.26 | +$27.37 | 50% 918-909 (1827) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 77.7¢ | $241.8 | $179.16 | -$62.64 | 45% 909-1089 (1998) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.7¢ | $139.12 | $179.16 | +$40.04 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27.8¢ | $102.68 | — | -$102.68 | |
 ohioism | Upavg 80.5¢ | $203.81 | $233.69 | +$29.88 | 47% 2520-2793 (5313) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 50¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 76.8¢ | $184.06 | $179.99 | -$4.07 | 54% 4704-4079 (8783) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76.8¢ | $138.23 | $179.99 | +$41.76 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21.8¢ | $45.83 | — | -$45.83 | |
AL Alpharo28 | Upavg 53.3¢ | $242.24 | $187.38 | +$20.63 | 58% 513-370 (883) |
Invested
$8,659
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$18.3
Record
55%
546-441 (987)
Both legs:
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
44%
388-491 (879)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
45%
670-814 (1484)
Invested
$3,453.61
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$46.39
Record
99%
981-7 (988)
Invested
$1,897.12
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$51.55
Record
47%
1217-1346 (2563)
Invested
$1,135.94
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$83.26
Record
52%
1719-1616 (3335)
Invested
$1,040.63
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$156.23
Record
51%
4983-4719 (9702)
Invested
$880.28
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$196.44
Record
52%
1731-1604 (3335)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$990
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10
Record
50%
1799-1825 (3624)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$231.26
Value
—
PnL
-$231.26
Record
48%
1223-1345 (2568)
Invested
$624.11
Value
$569.9
PnL
-$50.01
Record
59%
1194-845 (2039)
Invested
$568.18
Value
$522.23
PnL
-$42.62
Record
44%
865-1095 (1960)
Invested
$546.44
Value
$488.4
PnL
+$5.05
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Invested
$526.59
Value
$453.49
PnL
-$73.1
Record
35%
859-1586 (2445)
Invested
$313.6
Value
$318.58
PnL
+$4.98
Record
55%
4661-3757 (8418)
Invested
$307.77
Value
$299.97
PnL
-$7.81
Record
51%
489-462 (951)
Invested
$260.63
Value
$245.6
PnL
-$15.03
Record
52%
5242-4903 (10145)
Both legs:
Invested
$290.52
Value
$251.57
PnL
-$26.23
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
Invested
$241.88
Value
$256.24
PnL
+$14.35
Record
50%
1010-1000 (2010)
Both legs:
Invested
$220.89
Value
$248.26
PnL
+$27.37
Record
50%
918-909 (1827)
Invested
$241.8
Value
$179.16
PnL
-$62.64
Record
45%
909-1089 (1998)
Both legs:
ohioismInvested
$203.81
Value
$233.69
PnL
+$29.88
Record
47%
2520-2793 (5313)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$184.06
Value
$179.99
PnL
-$4.07
Record
54%
4704-4079 (8783)
Both legs:
Invested
$242.24
Value
$187.38
PnL
+$20.63
Record
58%
513-370 (883)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
ARBArbitrage — excluded
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.8K
almach
Up — $1.2K
bosona
Up — $1.2K
mo-money
Up — $1.1K
cryingbabydicer87
Up — $1.0K
machinelearned
CTRDown — $0