Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
60
Up 72%
3 arb excluded
$18.4K
$-8.4K
Smart Money Signal
43 of 60 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%38 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.4K | +$22.93 | 55% 546-441 (987) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 44% 388-491 (879) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 670-814 (1484) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$25.36 | 98% 4661-98 (4759) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$1.21 | 54% 1662-1428 (3090) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.13 | 99% 981-7 (988) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $945 | -$1.45 | 52% 3978-3687 (7665) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $472.5 | $945 | +$473.55 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $475 | — | -$475 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 93.3¢ | $565.14 | $519.6 | -$45.54 | 35% 859-1586 (2445) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 89.7¢ | $469.03 | $522.69 | +$53.66 | 52% 1731-1604 (3335) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.8¢ | $542.32 | $494.6 | +$6.01 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 97.9¢ | $446.44 | $456.16 | +$9.72 | 43% 2210-2957 (5167) |
AL almach | Upavg 82.7¢ | $386.32 | $466.96 | +$80.64 | 52% 1719-1616 (3335) |
BO bosona | Upavg 85.9¢ | $315.01 | $366.54 | +$51.53 | 51% 4983-4719 (9702) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 86.7¢ | $365.71 | $341.87 | -$23.84 | 55% 4661-3757 (8418) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 83.4¢ | $251.47 | $209.37 | +$10.7 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 67.2¢ | $264.44 | $200.48 | -$53.28 | 59% 1194-845 (2039) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 97.8¢ | $191.76 | $196 | +$4.24 | 53% 3129-2827 (5956) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 88¢ | $242.27 | $275.31 | +$33.04 | 48% 1223-1345 (2568) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 28.8¢ | $103.84 | — | -$103.84 | 47% 1217-1346 (2563) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 95.9¢ | $129.49 | $135 | +$5.51 | 40% 1799-2733 (4532) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 81¢ | $135.58 | $125.99 | -$9.59 | 51% 918-886 (1804) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 93.4¢ | $109.92 | $117.74 | +$7.82 | 34% 1279-2509 (3788) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 97.3¢ | $107.87 | $105 | -$2.87 | 54% 1099-952 (2051) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $100 | $100 | -$0 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $50 | $100 | +$50 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $50 | — | -$50 | |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $99.99 | $100 | +$0.01 | 51% 489-462 (951) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71¢ | $71 | $100 | +$29 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29¢ | $28.99 | — | -$28.99 |
Invested
$8,760
Value
$8.4K
PnL
+$22.93
Record
55%
546-441 (987)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
44%
388-491 (879)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
670-814 (1484)
Invested
$1,242.64
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$25.36
Record
98%
4661-98 (4759)
Invested
$1,213.29
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$1.21
Record
54%
1662-1428 (3090)
Invested
$1,101.57
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.13
Record
99%
981-7 (988)
Invested
$950
Value
$945
PnL
-$1.45
Record
52%
3978-3687 (7665)
Both legs:
Invested
$565.14
Value
$519.6
PnL
-$45.54
Record
35%
859-1586 (2445)
Invested
$469.03
Value
$522.69
PnL
+$53.66
Record
52%
1731-1604 (3335)
Invested
$542.32
Value
$494.6
PnL
+$6.01
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Invested
$446.44
Value
$456.16
PnL
+$9.72
Record
43%
2210-2957 (5167)
Invested
$386.32
Value
$466.96
PnL
+$80.64
Record
52%
1719-1616 (3335)
Invested
$315.01
Value
$366.54
PnL
+$51.53
Record
51%
4983-4719 (9702)
Invested
$365.71
Value
$341.87
PnL
-$23.84
Record
55%
4661-3757 (8418)
Invested
$251.47
Value
$209.37
PnL
+$10.7
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
Invested
$264.44
Value
$200.48
PnL
-$53.28
Record
59%
1194-845 (2039)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$191.76
Value
$196
PnL
+$4.24
Record
53%
3129-2827 (5956)
machinelearnedInvested
$242.27
Value
$275.31
PnL
+$33.04
Record
48%
1223-1345 (2568)
Invested
$103.84
Value
—
PnL
-$103.84
Record
47%
1217-1346 (2563)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$129.49
Value
$135
PnL
+$5.51
Record
40%
1799-2733 (4532)
Invested
$135.58
Value
$125.99
PnL
-$9.59
Record
51%
918-886 (1804)
pspspsps5Invested
$109.92
Value
$117.74
PnL
+$7.82
Record
34%
1279-2509 (3788)
Invested
$107.87
Value
$105
PnL
-$2.87
Record
54%
1099-952 (2051)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$100
Value
$100
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.99
Value
$100
PnL
+$0.01
Record
51%
489-462 (951)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.4K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $1.3K
0x50f7
Up — $1.2K
THG.
Up — $1.1K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Up — $519.6
mo-money
Up — $522.69
ByteBadger92
Up — $494.6