Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
77
Down 75%
$15.7K
$-13.9K
Smart Money Signal
49 of 77 top traders (64%)28 hold an outcome priced under 50%50 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.3K | 55% 546-441 (987) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 44% 388-491 (879) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | -$20.46 | 45% 670-814 (1484) |
TH THG. | Downavg 98.5¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$51.42 | 99% 981-7 (988) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$925.1 | 52% 3978-3687 (7665) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 76.5¢ | $751.29 | $769.65 | +$18.37 | 59% 1194-845 (2039) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 74.7¢ | $601.37 | $640.3 | +$54.93 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
BO bosona | Downavg 78.1¢ | $484.51 | $589.48 | +$124.73 | 51% 4983-4719 (9702) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 93¢ | $495.51 | $504.36 | +$8.86 | 52% 1731-1604 (3335) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52¢ | $588.84 | $492.37 | +$1.4 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
AL almach | Downavg 87¢ | $430.13 | $484.94 | +$54.81 | 52% 1719-1616 (3335) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 85.9¢ | $514.11 | $469.03 | -$45.08 | 47% 1217-1346 (2563) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 71.4¢ | $440.83 | $460.31 | +$20.47 | 51% 489-462 (951) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 83.1¢ | $473.2 | $433.26 | -$39.94 | 35% 859-1586 (2445) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.1¢ | $365.21 | $376 | +$10.79 | 98% 4661-98 (4759) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 83.5¢ | $324.37 | $320.53 | -$3.84 | 55% 4661-3757 (8418) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 76.3¢ | $377.88 | $294.63 | +$43.93 | 52% 5242-4903 (10145) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 75.8¢ | $304.77 | $285 | -$7.17 | 44% 865-1095 (1960) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 76.6¢ | $271.16 | $279.07 | +$7.91 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 78.6¢ | $200.86 | $230 | +$29.13 | 44% 2484-3215 (5699) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 78.3¢ | $233.23 | $205.79 | -$27.44 | 51% 909-889 (1798) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 84.8¢ | $166.8 | $182.46 | +$15.66 | 53% 1036-930 (1966) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 80¢ | $131 | $150 | +$19 | 70% 1893-822 (2715) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 79¢ | $110.22 | $129.98 | +$19.77 | 48% 2621-2880 (5501) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 91.1¢ | $115.29 | $115 | -$0.29 | 54% 1099-952 (2051) |
Invested
$8,939
Value
—
PnL
$-8.3K
Record
55%
546-441 (987)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
44%
388-491 (879)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$20.46
Record
45%
670-814 (1484)
Invested
$3,448.58
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$51.42
Record
99%
981-7 (988)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$925.1
Record
52%
3978-3687 (7665)
Invested
$751.29
Value
$769.65
PnL
+$18.37
Record
59%
1194-845 (2039)
Invested
$601.37
Value
$640.3
PnL
+$54.93
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
Invested
$484.51
Value
$589.48
PnL
+$124.73
Record
51%
4983-4719 (9702)
Invested
$495.51
Value
$504.36
PnL
+$8.86
Record
52%
1731-1604 (3335)
Invested
$588.84
Value
$492.37
PnL
+$1.4
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Invested
$430.13
Value
$484.94
PnL
+$54.81
Record
52%
1719-1616 (3335)
Invested
$514.11
Value
$469.03
PnL
-$45.08
Record
47%
1217-1346 (2563)
Invested
$440.83
Value
$460.31
PnL
+$20.47
Record
51%
489-462 (951)
Invested
$473.2
Value
$433.26
PnL
-$39.94
Record
35%
859-1586 (2445)
Invested
$365.21
Value
$376
PnL
+$10.79
Record
98%
4661-98 (4759)
Invested
$324.37
Value
$320.53
PnL
-$3.84
Record
55%
4661-3757 (8418)
Invested
$377.88
Value
$294.63
PnL
+$43.93
Record
52%
5242-4903 (10145)
Invested
$304.77
Value
$285
PnL
-$7.17
Record
44%
865-1095 (1960)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$271.16
Value
$279.07
PnL
+$7.91
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$200.86
Value
$230
PnL
+$29.13
Record
44%
2484-3215 (5699)
OhioAIInvested
$233.23
Value
$205.79
PnL
-$27.44
Record
51%
909-889 (1798)
Invested
$166.8
Value
$182.46
PnL
+$15.66
Record
53%
1036-930 (1966)
BoneOhioInvested
$131
Value
$150
PnL
+$19
Record
70%
1893-822 (2715)
Invested
$110.22
Value
$129.98
PnL
+$19.77
Record
48%
2621-2880 (5501)
Invested
$115.29
Value
$115
PnL
-$0.29
Record
54%
1099-952 (2051)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.7K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $769.65
asdcaxz
Down — $640.3
bosona
Down — $589.48
mo-money
Down — $504.36
ByteBadger92
Down — $492.37