Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

31 of 48 top Polymarket traders hold Up (65%) · Up at 100¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.1K

Combined PnL

$55.85

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 99.5¢

+33% since entry · 31 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

31 of 48 top traders (65%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares12,859

Combined PnL-$11.82

Up31 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares14,767

Combined PnL+$67.67

Down — 35%Up — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	$7.8K	+$42.25	55% 542-437 (979)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$48.6	44% 380-487 (867)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.5K	+$48.86	45% 661-811 (1472)
TH THG.	Upavg 98.8¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$24.96	99% 977-7 (984)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$10	51% 2246-2136 (4382)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$935.25	+$8.15	52% 3952-3665 (7617)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	$669.75	+$194.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$450	$265.5	-$186.6
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$736.46	$740.28	+$3.82	98% 4630-97 (4727)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 59.6¢	$599.23	$557.61	-$41.62	59% 1185-840 (2025)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 32.1¢	$416.37	$533.76	+$117.38	47% 1208-1339 (2547)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.6¢	$161.73	$307.68	+$145.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.1¢	$254.64	$226.08	-$28.57
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 53.6¢	$596.84	$503.62	-$5.61	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
ST stepahead	Upavg 63.1¢	$379.7	$347.78	-$31.92	55% 4649-3753 (8402)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 67.9¢	$331.55	$323.64	+$22.64	52% 5230-4894 (10124)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 74¢	$297.62	$281.1	-$16.53	35% 850-1583 (2433)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 66.7¢	$248.45	$280.24	+$47.26	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
BO bosona	Upavg 55¢	$169.74	$171.84	+$2.1	51% 4973-4711 (9684)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 90.7¢	$160.14	$147.06	-$13.08	44% 2472-3195 (5667)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 45.6¢	$120.34	$136.57	+$16.22	51% 2609-2462 (5071)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.6¢	$62.34	$97.81	+$35.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.6¢	$58	$38.76	-$19.24
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 51.3¢	$124.63	$130.96	+$6.33	44% 861-1087 (1948)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.3¢	$70.57	$98.33	+$27.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$54.05	$32.63	-$21.43
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 74.4¢	$145.85	$117.28	-$25.82	53% 1027-927 (1954)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 78.3¢	$82.09	$100.63	+$18.54	48% 855-924 (1779)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 61¢	$89.99	$99.99	+$10	51% 484-458 (942)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$61	$71.5	+$10.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 29¢	$28.99	$28.49	-$0.5
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 64.8¢	$78.03	$77.39	-$0.65	51% 910-883 (1793)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.8¢	$51.58	$56.93	+$5.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.9¢	$26.45	$20.46	-$6
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 58¢	$43.49	$74.63	+$31.14	48% 2582-2816 (5398)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 79¢	$71.41	$74.53	+$3.12	59% 1119-786 (1905)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 65¢	$82.55	$74.3	-$8.25	70% 1877-817 (2694)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,757

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$42.25

Record

55%

542-437 (979)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$48.6

Record

44%

380-487 (867)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$48.86

Record

45%

661-811 (1472)

THG.

Invested

$3,457.54

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$24.96

Record

99%

977-7 (984)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$1,980

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

51%

2246-2136 (4382)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$935.25

PnL

+$8.15

Record

52%

3952-3665 (7617)

Both legs:

Up$47550¢+$194.75

Down$45050¢-$186.6

hoodquant

Invested

$736.46

Value

$740.28

PnL

+$3.82

Record

98%

4630-97 (4727)

Bonereaper

Invested

$599.23

Value

$557.61

PnL

-$41.62

Record

59%

1185-840 (2025)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$416.37

Value

$533.76

PnL

+$117.38

Record

47%

1208-1339 (2547)

Both legs:

Up$161.7337.6¢+$145.95

Down$254.6432.1¢-$28.57

ByteBadger92

Invested

$596.84

Value

$503.62

PnL

-$5.61

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

stepahead

Invested

$379.7

Value

$347.78

PnL

-$31.92

Record

55%

4649-3753 (8402)

blue.birds

Invested

$331.55

Value

$323.64

PnL

+$22.64

Record

52%

5230-4894 (10124)

ply-pm0

Invested

$297.62

Value

$281.1

PnL

-$16.53

Record

35%

850-1583 (2433)

asdcaxz

Invested

$248.45

Value

$280.24

PnL

+$47.26

Record

50%

4682-4738 (9420)

bosona

Invested

$169.74

Value

$171.84

PnL

+$2.1

Record

51%

4973-4711 (9684)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$160.14

Value

$147.06

PnL

-$13.08

Record

44%

2472-3195 (5667)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$120.34

Value

$136.57

PnL

+$16.22

Record

51%

2609-2462 (5071)

Both legs:

Up$62.3445.6¢+$35.46

Down$5842.6¢-$19.24

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$124.63

Value

$130.96

PnL

+$6.33

Record

44%

861-1087 (1948)

Both legs:

Up$70.5751.3¢+$27.76

Down$54.0547.2¢-$21.43

wzbbb

Invested

$145.85

Value

$117.28

PnL

-$25.82

Record

53%

1027-927 (1954)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$82.09

Value

$100.63

PnL

+$18.54

Record

48%

855-924 (1779)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$89.99

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$10

Record

51%

484-458 (942)

Both legs:

Up$6161¢+$10.5

Down$28.9929¢-$0.5

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$78.03

Value

$77.39

PnL

-$0.65

Record

51%

910-883 (1793)

Both legs:

Up$51.5864.8¢+$5.35

Down$26.4536.9¢-$6

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$43.49

Value

$74.63

PnL

+$31.14

Record

48%

2582-2816 (5398)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$71.41

Value

$74.53

PnL

+$3.12

Record

59%

1119-786 (1905)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$82.55

Value

$74.3

PnL

-$8.25

Record

70%

1877-817 (2694)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

31 of 48 top traders (65%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.