Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.2K

Combined PnL

$-12.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

32 of 51 top traders (63%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares14,686

Combined PnL$-12.9K

Down32 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares10,090

Combined PnL+$228.85

Up — 37%Down — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	—	$-7.9K	55% 542-437 (979)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.4K	44% 380-487 (867)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.5K	+$3.62	45% 661-811 (1472)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.7K	$3.5K	+$1.9K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K
TH THG.	Downavg 98.7¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$47.17	99% 977-7 (984)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$16.03	51% 2246-2136 (4382)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 71¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$54.15	59% 1185-840 (2025)
BO bosona	Downavg 82.9¢	$763.28	$887.09	+$123.81	51% 4973-4711 (9684)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 32.7¢	$508.93	$457.87	-$51.06	47% 1208-1339 (2547)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.6¢	$218.04	$457.87	+$239.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.7¢	$290.89	—	-$290.89
BL blue.birds	Downavg 80.5¢	$534.57	$535.35	+$0.79	52% 5230-4894 (10124)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 53.8¢	$596.12	$500.25	-$7.13	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.8¢	$268.94	$500.25	+$245.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$228.53	—	-$252.2
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 75.1¢	$337.78	$343.18	+$5.4	55% 4649-3753 (8402)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.1¢	$257.6	$343.18	+$85.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.4¢	$80.18	—	-$80.18
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 76.6¢	$413.61	$282.35	-$38.26	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 82.3¢	$241.08	$204.23	-$36.85	51% 484-458 (942)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.3¢	$168.08	$204.23	+$36.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.3¢	$73	—	-$73
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 86¢	$192.21	$173.46	-$18.75	35% 850-1583 (2433)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 25.6¢	$222.51	—	-$202.64	44% 861-1087 (1948)
machinelearned	Downavg 87.8¢	$160.6	$183	+$22.4	47% 1214-1343 (2557)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 81.8¢	$128.98	$136.59	-$5.7	62% 4748-2897 (7645)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 90.5¢	$157.5	$131.27	-$2.19	51% 2609-2462 (5071)
OhioAIARB<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$108.4	$121.82	+$13.42	51% 903-883 (1786)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.6¢	$76.32	$121.82	+$45.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.5¢	$32.08	—	-$32.08
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 85.1¢	$109.42	$115	+$5.58	54% 1091-944 (2035)
MO mo-money	Downavg 84.9¢	$100.41	$113.98	+$13.57	52% 1724-1594 (3318)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 84.3¢	$78.54	$90.86	+$12.32	52% 1710-1607 (3317)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 78.2¢	$80.07	$95	+$14.93	48% 2606-2865 (5471)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 77.7¢	$64.77	$80.61	+$15.84	66% 4070-2058 (6128)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Downavg 68.1¢	$79.34	$72.93	-$6.42	58% 502-365 (867)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,647

Value

—

PnL

$-7.9K

Record

55%

542-437 (979)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

44%

380-487 (867)

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$3.62

Record

45%

661-811 (1472)

Both legs:

Down$1,742.6450¢+$1.9K

Up$1,901.9950¢$-1.9K

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,452.83

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$47.17

Record

99%

977-7 (984)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,016.03

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$16.03

Record

51%

2246-2136 (4382)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,104.75

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$54.15

Record

59%

1185-840 (2025)

bosona

Down

Invested

$763.28

Value

$887.09

PnL

+$123.81

Record

51%

4973-4711 (9684)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$508.93

Value

$457.87

PnL

-$51.06

Record

47%

1208-1339 (2547)

Both legs:

Down$218.0447.6¢+$239.83

Up$290.8932.7¢-$290.89

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$534.57

Value

$535.35

PnL

+$0.79

Record

52%

5230-4894 (10124)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$596.12

Value

$500.25

PnL

-$7.13

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

Both legs:

Down$268.9453.8¢+$245.07

Up$228.5346.1¢-$252.2

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$337.78

Value

$343.18

PnL

+$5.4

Record

55%

4649-3753 (8402)

Both legs:

Down$257.675.1¢+$85.58

Up$80.1824.4¢-$80.18

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$413.61

Value

$282.35

PnL

-$38.26

Record

50%

4682-4738 (9420)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$241.08

Value

$204.23

PnL

-$36.85

Record

51%

484-458 (942)

Both legs:

Down$168.0882.3¢+$36.15

Up$7324.3¢-$73

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$192.21

Value

$173.46

PnL

-$18.75

Record

35%

850-1583 (2433)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$222.51

Value

—

PnL

-$202.64

Record

44%

861-1087 (1948)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$160.6

Value

$183

PnL

+$22.4

Record

47%

1214-1343 (2557)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$128.98

Value

$136.59

PnL

-$5.7

Record

62%

4748-2897 (7645)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$157.5

Value

$131.27

PnL

-$2.19

Record

51%

2609-2462 (5071)

OhioAIARB<$100

Down

Invested

$108.4

Value

$121.82

PnL

+$13.42

Record

51%

903-883 (1786)

Both legs:

Down$76.3262.6¢+$45.5

Up$32.0824.5¢-$32.08

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$109.42

Value

$115

PnL

+$5.58

Record

54%

1091-944 (2035)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$100.41

Value

$113.98

PnL

+$13.57

Record

52%

1724-1594 (3318)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$78.54

Value

$90.86

PnL

+$12.32

Record

52%

1710-1607 (3317)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$80.07

Value

$95

PnL

+$14.93

Record

48%

2606-2865 (5471)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$64.77

Value

$80.61

PnL

+$15.84

Record

66%

4070-2058 (6128)

Alpharo28<$100

Down

Invested

$79.34

Value

$72.93

PnL

-$6.42

Record

58%

502-365 (867)

Smart Money Signal

Down

32 of 51 top traders (63%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdf0eeb61...c0c23b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794778200

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

THG.

Down — $3.5K

+$47.17

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.0K

-$16.03

Bonereaper

Down — $1.0K

-$54.15

bosona

Down — $887.09

+$123.81

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$51.06

blue.birds

Down — $535.35

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded