Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Up 75%
$15.9K
$-9.3K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 51 top traders (75%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.5K | +$77.47 | 55% 542-437 (979) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 44% 380-487 (867) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 45% 661-811 (1472) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35.71 | 99% 977-7 (984) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$950 | 52% 3952-3665 (7617) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 86.8¢ | $479.57 | $552.2 | +$72.64 | 47% 1214-1343 (2557) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 74.3¢ | $464.06 | $515.82 | +$51.76 | 59% 1185-840 (2025) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 52.5¢ | $548.47 | $501.96 | +$0.65 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 89.6¢ | $265.43 | $254.46 | -$10.97 | 50% 4682-4738 (9420) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 66¢ | $267.23 | $237.81 | -$29.41 | 55% 4649-3753 (8402) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 81.3¢ | $319.77 | $210.89 | -$108.88 | 47% 1208-1339 (2547) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 88.9¢ | $221.56 | $218.68 | -$2.89 | 35% 850-1583 (2433) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 96¢ | $157.36 | $163.92 | +$6.56 | 52% 1724-1594 (3318) |
PA Papeasy | Upavg 74.7¢ | $93.14 | $122.48 | +$29.34 | 50% 3897-3843 (7740) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 66.1¢ | $158.21 | $117.01 | -$2.41 | 51% 2609-2462 (5071) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 74.1¢ | $63 | $85 | +$22 | 48% 2582-2816 (5398) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Upavg 84.8¢ | $82.07 | $73.1 | -$8.97 | 45% 902-1084 (1986) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $68.6 | $70 | +$1.4 | 98% 4630-97 (4727) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 89.1¢ | $155.68 | $67.04 | -$7.04 | 52% 5230-4894 (10124) |
AL almach | Upavg 96¢ | $103.82 | $58.74 | -$45.08 | 52% 1710-1607 (3317) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 96.5¢ | $56.96 | $59 | +$2.04 | 53% 3113-2811 (5924) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 94.5¢ | $50.07 | $52.98 | +$2.91 | 34% 1270-2495 (3765) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $41.5 | $50 | +$8.5 | 54% 4698-4075 (8773) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Upavg 61.1¢ | $29.59 | $48.14 | +$18.56 | 51% 931-878 (1809) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Upavg 71.6¢ | $34.55 | $45.2 | +$12.04 | 59% 1119-775 (1894) |
Invested
$8,773
Value
$8.5K
PnL
+$77.47
Record
55%
542-437 (979)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
44%
380-487 (867)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
45%
661-811 (1472)
Invested
$3,464.29
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35.71
Record
99%
977-7 (984)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$950
Record
52%
3952-3665 (7617)
machinelearnedInvested
$479.57
Value
$552.2
PnL
+$72.64
Record
47%
1214-1343 (2557)
Invested
$464.06
Value
$515.82
PnL
+$51.76
Record
59%
1185-840 (2025)
Invested
$548.47
Value
$501.96
PnL
+$0.65
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Invested
$265.43
Value
$254.46
PnL
-$10.97
Record
50%
4682-4738 (9420)
Invested
$267.23
Value
$237.81
PnL
-$29.41
Record
55%
4649-3753 (8402)
Invested
$319.77
Value
$210.89
PnL
-$108.88
Record
47%
1208-1339 (2547)
Invested
$221.56
Value
$218.68
PnL
-$2.89
Record
35%
850-1583 (2433)
Invested
$157.36
Value
$163.92
PnL
+$6.56
Record
52%
1724-1594 (3318)
Invested
$93.14
Value
$122.48
PnL
+$29.34
Record
50%
3897-3843 (7740)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$158.21
Value
$117.01
PnL
-$2.41
Record
51%
2609-2462 (5071)
Invested
$63
Value
$85
PnL
+$22
Record
48%
2582-2816 (5398)
Invested
$82.07
Value
$73.1
PnL
-$8.97
Record
45%
902-1084 (1986)
Invested
$68.6
Value
$70
PnL
+$1.4
Record
98%
4630-97 (4727)
Invested
$155.68
Value
$67.04
PnL
-$7.04
Record
52%
5230-4894 (10124)
Invested
$103.82
Value
$58.74
PnL
-$45.08
Record
52%
1710-1607 (3317)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$56.96
Value
$59
PnL
+$2.04
Record
53%
3113-2811 (5924)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$50.07
Value
$52.98
PnL
+$2.91
Record
34%
1270-2495 (3765)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$41.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$8.5
Record
54%
4698-4075 (8773)
Invested
$29.59
Value
$48.14
PnL
+$18.56
Record
51%
931-878 (1809)
Invested
$34.55
Value
$45.2
PnL
+$12.04
Record
59%
1119-775 (1894)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.5K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
machinelearned
Up — $552.2
Bonereaper
Up — $515.82
ByteBadger92
Up — $501.96
asdcaxz
Up — $254.46
stepahead
Up — $237.81