Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
53
Up 36%
7 arb excluded
$12.0K
$-17.1K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 53 top traders (36%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.2K | 55% 542-437 (979) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 44% 380-487 (867) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 45% 661-811 (1472) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$26.29 | 99% 977-7 (984) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 56.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$411.99 | 59% 1185-840 (2025) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 75.2¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$32.2 | 52% 5230-4894 (10124) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$905.69 | 52% 3952-3665 (7617) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 52¢ | $580.72 | $756.57 | +$175.85 | 47% 1208-1339 (2547) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 64.6¢ | $585.67 | $672.17 | +$92.09 | 50% 4682-4738 (9420) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 66.9¢ | $623.84 | $610.1 | -$13.74 | 51% 484-458 (942) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52¢ | $624.39 | $492.2 | +$4.7 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 62.1¢ | $420.63 | $386.71 | -$33.92 | 55% 4649-3753 (8402) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 40.4¢ | $312.21 | $203.28 | -$108.94 | 47% 1214-1343 (2557) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.4¢ | $167.85 | — | -$167.85 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71¢ | $144.36 | $203.28 | +$58.92 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 69.7¢ | $326.04 | $298.18 | -$27.86 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.6¢ | $118.21 | — | -$118.21 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.7¢ | $207.83 | $298.18 | +$90.35 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 62.6¢ | $285.42 | $300.71 | +$15.29 | 35% 850-1583 (2433) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 67¢ | $165.12 | $246.61 | +$81.49 | 54% 4698-4075 (8773) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 70.6¢ | $257.15 | $241.9 | -$15.25 | 51% 2609-2462 (5071) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 89.4¢ | $223.5 | $250 | +$26.5 | 70% 1877-817 (2694) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 55.8¢ | $192.32 | $216.13 | +$23.82 | 53% 1027-927 (1954) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.8¢ | $120.52 | $216.13 | +$95.61 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.3¢ | $71.79 | — | -$71.79 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 56.6¢ | $190.46 | $208.9 | +$18.44 | 45% 902-1084 (1986) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.6¢ | $118.22 | $208.9 | +$90.69 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.9¢ | $72.24 | — | -$72.24 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 94.5¢ | $202.38 | $196.1 | -$6.28 | 51% 931-878 (1809) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 37.8¢ | $311.39 | — | -$303.8 | 44% 861-1087 (1948) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 66.5¢ | $205.09 | $184.08 | -$18.82 | 51% 903-883 (1786) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 52.4¢ | $358.57 | — | -$358.57 | 52% 1724-1594 (3318) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 66¢ | $186.82 | $227.2 | +$40.38 | 43% 907-1217 (2124) |
Invested
$8,869
Value
—
PnL
$-8.2K
Record
55%
542-437 (979)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
44%
380-487 (867)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
45%
661-811 (1472)
Invested
$2,602.5
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$26.29
Record
99%
977-7 (984)
Invested
$1,079.41
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$411.99
Record
59%
1185-840 (2025)
Invested
$1,018.49
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$32.2
Record
52%
5230-4894 (10124)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$905.69
Record
52%
3952-3665 (7617)
Invested
$580.72
Value
$756.57
PnL
+$175.85
Record
47%
1208-1339 (2547)
Invested
$585.67
Value
$672.17
PnL
+$92.09
Record
50%
4682-4738 (9420)
Invested
$623.84
Value
$610.1
PnL
-$13.74
Record
51%
484-458 (942)
Invested
$624.39
Value
$492.2
PnL
+$4.7
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Invested
$420.63
Value
$386.71
PnL
-$33.92
Record
55%
4649-3753 (8402)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$312.21
Value
$203.28
PnL
-$108.94
Record
47%
1214-1343 (2557)
Both legs:
Invested
$326.04
Value
$298.18
PnL
-$27.86
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
Both legs:
Invested
$285.42
Value
$300.71
PnL
+$15.29
Record
35%
850-1583 (2433)
FairValueMachineInvested
$165.12
Value
$246.61
PnL
+$81.49
Record
54%
4698-4075 (8773)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$257.15
Value
$241.9
PnL
-$15.25
Record
51%
2609-2462 (5071)
BoneOhioInvested
$223.5
Value
$250
PnL
+$26.5
Record
70%
1877-817 (2694)
Invested
$192.32
Value
$216.13
PnL
+$23.82
Record
53%
1027-927 (1954)
Both legs:
Invested
$190.46
Value
$208.9
PnL
+$18.44
Record
45%
902-1084 (1986)
Both legs:
Invested
$202.38
Value
$196.1
PnL
-$6.28
Record
51%
931-878 (1809)
Invested
$311.39
Value
—
PnL
-$303.8
Record
44%
861-1087 (1948)
OhioAIInvested
$205.09
Value
$184.08
PnL
-$18.82
Record
51%
903-883 (1786)
Invested
$358.57
Value
—
PnL
-$358.57
Record
52%
1724-1594 (3318)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$186.82
Value
$227.2
PnL
+$40.38
Record
43%
907-1217 (2124)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $2.6K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.4K
blue.birds
Down — $1.1K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $756.57
asdcaxz
Down — $672.17
gansinimen
Down — $610.1