Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 81%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.7K

Combined PnL

$-7.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

46 of 57 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down46 traders

Total Value$21.4K

Total Shares21,377

Combined PnL+$603.93

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,379

Combined PnL$-8.1K

Down — 81%Up — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$9.0K	$8.7K	+$29.27	55% 542-437 (979)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.3K	44% 380-487 (867)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.7K	45% 661-811 (1472)
TH THG.	Downavg 98.1¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$66.16	99% 977-7 (984)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 91.9¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$176.81	51% 2246-2136 (4382)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 75.1¢	$944.03	$973.83	+$33.02	59% 1185-840 (2025)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 83¢	$566.45	$595.72	+$29.27	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 52.3¢	$544.02	$500.01	-$0.55	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
AL almach	Downavg 87.9¢	$441.46	$502.31	+$60.86	52% 1710-1607 (3317)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 79.9¢	$427.42	$416.09	-$8.18	53% 1027-927 (1954)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 64.8¢	$321.29	$393.72	+$72.43	45% 902-1084 (1986)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 76.1¢	$372.15	$345.82	-$26.32	35% 850-1583 (2433)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 64.2¢	$325.85	$291.65	-$29.58	44% 861-1087 (1948)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 78.3¢	$330.85	$288.35	+$6.5	52% 5230-4894 (10124)
MO mo-money	Downavg 94.3¢	$274.1	$289.73	+$15.63	52% 1724-1594 (3318)
ST stepahead	Downavg 62.8¢	$260.21	$267.38	+$7.18	55% 4649-3753 (8402)
machinelearned	Downavg 85.9¢	$170.05	$197.82	+$27.77	47% 1214-1343 (2557)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 76.8¢	$176.29	$158.7	-$17.59	48% 2606-2865 (5471)
ohioism	Downavg 75.7¢	$136.51	$141.84	+$5.34	47% 2506-2778 (5284)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 21.2¢	$190.16	$105	-$85.16	47% 1208-1339 (2547)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.9¢	$66	$105	+$39
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.2¢	$124.16	—	-$124.16
BoneOhio	Downavg 75¢	$115.83	$151.39	+$35.56	70% 1877-817 (2694)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 57.9¢	$132.19	$168.33	+$36.14	54% 4698-4075 (8773)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.9¢	$97.38	$168.33	+$70.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$34.81	—	-$34.81
BO bosona	Downavg 89.9¢	$111.07	$117	+$5.93	51% 4973-4711 (9684)
LI Little-big	Downavg 55.9¢	$64.15	$114.77	+$50.62	51% 1162-1108 (2270)
OhioAI	Downavg 65.5¢	$94.54	$112	+$17.46	51% 903-883 (1786)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,956

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$29.27

Record

55%

542-437 (979)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

44%

380-487 (867)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

45%

661-811 (1472)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,433.84

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$66.16

Record

99%

977-7 (984)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,004.87

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$176.81

Record

51%

2246-2136 (4382)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$944.03

Value

$973.83

PnL

+$33.02

Record

59%

1185-840 (2025)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$566.45

Value

$595.72

PnL

+$29.27

Record

50%

4682-4738 (9420)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$544.02

Value

$500.01

PnL

-$0.55

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

almach

Down

Invested

$441.46

Value

$502.31

PnL

+$60.86

Record

52%

1710-1607 (3317)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$427.42

Value

$416.09

PnL

-$8.18

Record

53%

1027-927 (1954)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$321.29

Value

$393.72

PnL

+$72.43

Record

45%

902-1084 (1986)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$372.15

Value

$345.82

PnL

-$26.32

Record

35%

850-1583 (2433)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$325.85

Value

$291.65

PnL

-$29.58

Record

44%

861-1087 (1948)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$330.85

Value

$288.35

PnL

+$6.5

Record

52%

5230-4894 (10124)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$274.1

Value

$289.73

PnL

+$15.63

Record

52%

1724-1594 (3318)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$260.21

Value

$267.38

PnL

+$7.18

Record

55%

4649-3753 (8402)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$170.05

Value

$197.82

PnL

+$27.77

Record

47%

1214-1343 (2557)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$176.29

Value

$158.7

PnL

-$17.59

Record

48%

2606-2865 (5471)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$136.51

Value

$141.84

PnL

+$5.34

Record

47%

2506-2778 (5284)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$190.16

Value

$105

PnL

-$85.16

Record

47%

1208-1339 (2547)

Both legs:

Down$6662.9¢+$39

Up$124.1621.2¢-$124.16

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$115.83

Value

$151.39

PnL

+$35.56

Record

70%

1877-817 (2694)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$132.19

Value

$168.33

PnL

+$36.14

Record

54%

4698-4075 (8773)

Both legs:

Down$97.3857.9¢+$70.95

Up$34.8148.6¢-$34.81

bosona

Down

Invested

$111.07

Value

$117

PnL

+$5.93

Record

51%

4973-4711 (9684)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$64.15

Value

$114.77

PnL

+$50.62

Record

51%

1162-1108 (2270)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$94.54

Value

$112

PnL

+$17.46

Record

51%

903-883 (1786)

Smart Money Signal

Down

46 of 57 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1fbc4347...92838b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794777300

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $8.7K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Up — $0

THG.

Down — $3.5K

+$66.16

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.2K

+$176.81

Bonereaper

Down — $973.83

+$33.02

asdcaxz

Down — $595.72

+$29.27

ByteBadger92

Down — $500.01

-$0.55

almach

Down — $502.31

+$60.86

wzbbb

Down — $416.09

-$8.18

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