Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.8K

Combined PnL

$-8.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 51 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down40 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares20,800

Combined PnL+$334.28

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,222

Combined PnL$-8.7K

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.5K	-$34.59	55% 542-437 (979)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.8K	44% 380-487 (867)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.8K	45% 661-811 (1472)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 977-7 (984)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$206.1	51% 2246-2136 (4382)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$887.77	-$19.84	52% 3952-3665 (7617)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$443.88	$887.77	+$455.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	—	-$475
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 66.5¢	$750.34	$749.58	-$0.76	47% 1208-1339 (2547)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 65.6¢	$644.05	$744.66	+$101.66	59% 1185-840 (2025)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.8¢	$626.52	$634	+$7.48	98% 4630-97 (4727)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.8¢	$562.83	$489.74	+$3.48	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 72.2¢	$433.54	$423.3	-$10.24	35% 850-1583 (2433)
ST stepahead	Downavg 70.1¢	$371.34	$402.68	+$31.33	55% 4649-3753 (8402)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 63¢	$338.5	$343.65	+$5.15	49% 3684-3801 (7485)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 65.8¢	$307.18	$313.08	+$5.9	51% 2609-2462 (5071)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 66.9¢	$351.78	$270.55	+$12.77	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
AL almach	Downavg 92¢	$294.42	$311.25	+$16.83	52% 1710-1607 (3317)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 64.8¢	$217.89	$239.6	+$23.69	52% 5230-4894 (10124)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 46.3¢	$155.73	$198.58	+$63.88	44% 861-1087 (1948)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 52.1¢	$137.02	$190.57	+$53.55	51% 484-458 (942)
OhioAI	Downavg 59.1¢	$134.96	$124.68	-$10.28	51% 903-883 (1786)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 56.6¢	$172.81	$53.69	-$119.12	53% 1027-927 (1954)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.6¢	$143.4	—	-$143.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.8¢	$29.41	$53.69	+$24.28
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 65.5¢	$109.38	$103.06	-$6.33	49% 960-1012 (1972)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 46¢	$46.27	$100.65	+$54.38	45% 902-1084 (1986)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 84.2¢	$118.72	$97.46	-$21.26	51% 910-883 (1793)
LI Little-big	Downavg 98¢	$98	$100	+$2	51% 1162-1108 (2270)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,829

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$34.59

Record

55%

542-437 (979)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

44%

380-487 (867)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

45%

661-811 (1472)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

977-7 (984)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,337.1

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$206.1

Record

51%

2246-2136 (4382)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$887.77

PnL

-$19.84

Record

52%

3952-3665 (7617)

Both legs:

Down$443.8850¢+$455.16

Up$47550¢-$475

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$750.34

Value

$749.58

PnL

-$0.76

Record

47%

1208-1339 (2547)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$644.05

Value

$744.66

PnL

+$101.66

Record

59%

1185-840 (2025)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$626.52

Value

$634

PnL

+$7.48

Record

98%

4630-97 (4727)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$562.83

Value

$489.74

PnL

+$3.48

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$433.54

Value

$423.3

PnL

-$10.24

Record

35%

850-1583 (2433)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$371.34

Value

$402.68

PnL

+$31.33

Record

55%

4649-3753 (8402)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$338.5

Value

$343.65

PnL

+$5.15

Record

49%

3684-3801 (7485)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$307.18

Value

$313.08

PnL

+$5.9

Record

51%

2609-2462 (5071)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$351.78

Value

$270.55

PnL

+$12.77

Record

50%

4682-4738 (9420)

almach

Down

Invested

$294.42

Value

$311.25

PnL

+$16.83

Record

52%

1710-1607 (3317)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$217.89

Value

$239.6

PnL

+$23.69

Record

52%

5230-4894 (10124)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$155.73

Value

$198.58

PnL

+$63.88

Record

44%

861-1087 (1948)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$137.02

Value

$190.57

PnL

+$53.55

Record

51%

484-458 (942)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$134.96

Value

$124.68

PnL

-$10.28

Record

51%

903-883 (1786)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$172.81

Value

$53.69

PnL

-$119.12

Record

53%

1027-927 (1954)

Both legs:

Up$143.456.6¢-$143.4

Down$29.4154.8¢+$24.28

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$109.38

Value

$103.06

PnL

-$6.33

Record

49%

960-1012 (1972)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$46.27

Value

$100.65

PnL

+$54.38

Record

45%

902-1084 (1986)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$118.72

Value

$97.46

PnL

-$21.26

Record

51%

910-883 (1793)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$98

Value

$100

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1162-1108 (2270)

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 51 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xae013ba7...6d250d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794777000

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $8.5K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Up — $0

THG.

Down — $3.5K

+$35

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.1K

-$206.1

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$19.84

CrouchPredictions

Down — $749.58

-$0.76

Bonereaper

Down — $744.66

+$101.66

hoodquant

Down — $634

+$7.48

ByteBadger92

Down — $489.74

+$3.48

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