Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
56
Down 69%
$13.9K
$-18.5K
Smart Money Signal
39 of 56 top traders (70%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.6K | 55% 542-437 (979) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $5.5K | $5.5K | +$5.48 | 54% 1650-1425 (3075) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 44% 380-487 (867) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 45% 661-811 (1472) |
TH THG. | Downavg 98.7¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$47.14 | 99% 977-7 (984) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 84.8¢ | $971.1 | $1.1K | +$173.69 | 47% 1214-1343 (2557) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$931.87 | 52% 3952-3665 (7617) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99.6¢ | $796.4 | $800 | +$3.6 | 50% 1792-1817 (3609) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50.2¢ | $537.16 | — | -$515 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 70.1¢ | $362.66 | $308.42 | -$52.84 | 59% 1185-840 (2025) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 70.8¢ | $299.3 | $265.25 | -$34.05 | 51% 2609-2462 (5071) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 56¢ | $220.22 | $232.88 | +$12.67 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 90.7¢ | $277.62 | $230.35 | -$47.27 | 35% 850-1583 (2433) |
BO bosona | Downavg 99.4¢ | $282.48 | $220 | -$62.48 | 51% 4973-4711 (9684) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 83¢ | $167.19 | $194 | +$32.51 | 52% 5230-4894 (10124) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 72¢ | $146.7 | $200 | +$53.3 | 50% 4682-4738 (9420) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 69.1¢ | $176.51 | $157.67 | -$18.84 | 55% 4649-3753 (8402) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 64.6¢ | $88.2 | $114.35 | +$29.2 | 51% 903-883 (1786) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 42¢ | $152.2 | — | -$152.2 | 47% 1208-1339 (2547) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 89.5¢ | $105.53 | $104.49 | -$1.04 | 54% 1091-944 (2035) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 89¢ | $150 | $100 | -$50 | 51% 484-458 (942) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 59.2¢ | $105.48 | $92.19 | -$13.29 | 44% 861-1087 (1948) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 93.5¢ | $61 | $65.22 | +$4.22 | 50% 3897-3843 (7740) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 95.5¢ | $59.48 | $62.28 | +$2.8 | 60% 4328-2942 (7270) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 99.2¢ | $55.55 | $56 | +$0.45 | 53% 3113-2811 (5924) |
Invested
$8,929
Value
—
PnL
$-8.6K
Record
55%
542-437 (979)
Invested
$5,470.54
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$5.48
Record
54%
1650-1425 (3075)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
44%
380-487 (867)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
45%
661-811 (1472)
Invested
$3,452.86
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$47.14
Record
99%
977-7 (984)
machinelearnedInvested
$971.1
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$173.69
Record
47%
1214-1343 (2557)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$931.87
Record
52%
3952-3665 (7617)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$796.4
Value
$800
PnL
+$3.6
Record
50%
1792-1817 (3609)
Invested
$537.16
Value
—
PnL
-$515
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Invested
$362.66
Value
$308.42
PnL
-$52.84
Record
59%
1185-840 (2025)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$299.3
Value
$265.25
PnL
-$34.05
Record
51%
2609-2462 (5071)
Invested
$220.22
Value
$232.88
PnL
+$12.67
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
Invested
$277.62
Value
$230.35
PnL
-$47.27
Record
35%
850-1583 (2433)
Invested
$282.48
Value
$220
PnL
-$62.48
Record
51%
4973-4711 (9684)
Invested
$167.19
Value
$194
PnL
+$32.51
Record
52%
5230-4894 (10124)
Invested
$146.7
Value
$200
PnL
+$53.3
Record
50%
4682-4738 (9420)
Invested
$176.51
Value
$157.67
PnL
-$18.84
Record
55%
4649-3753 (8402)
OhioAIInvested
$88.2
Value
$114.35
PnL
+$29.2
Record
51%
903-883 (1786)
Invested
$152.2
Value
—
PnL
-$152.2
Record
47%
1208-1339 (2547)
Invested
$105.53
Value
$104.49
PnL
-$1.04
Record
54%
1091-944 (2035)
Invested
$150
Value
$100
PnL
-$50
Record
51%
484-458 (942)
Invested
$105.48
Value
$92.19
PnL
-$13.29
Record
44%
861-1087 (1948)
Invested
$61
Value
$65.22
PnL
+$4.22
Record
50%
3897-3843 (7740)
Invested
$59.48
Value
$62.28
PnL
+$2.8
Record
60%
4328-2942 (7270)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$55.55
Value
$56
PnL
+$0.45
Record
53%
3113-2811 (5924)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $5.5K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
machinelearned
Down — $1.1K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $800
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $308.42