Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Up 71%
7 arb excluded
$28.3K
-$281.18
Smart Money Signal
39 of 55 top traders (71%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.6K | +$3.12 | 55% 542-437 (979) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$175.8 | 44% 380-487 (867) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$192.42 | 45% 661-811 (1472) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$34.97 | 99% 977-7 (984) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 39.9¢ | $714.63 | $909.7 | +$195.07 | 59% 1185-840 (2025) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 35¢ | $650.69 | — | -$650.69 | 47% 1208-1339 (2547) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 46¢ | $480.15 | $650.32 | +$170.16 | 52% 1724-1594 (3318) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 52.5¢ | $574.86 | $607.91 | +$54.17 | 50% 4682-4738 (9420) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 51.7¢ | $597.66 | $495.28 | +$4.59 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.5¢ | $240.27 | $495.28 | +$253.94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.7¢ | $255.1 | — | -$249.35 | |
ST stepahead | Upavg 52.1¢ | $421.21 | $470.29 | +$49.08 | 55% 4649-3753 (8402) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 47.6¢ | $306.49 | $370.95 | +$64.46 | 44% 861-1087 (1948) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.7¢ | $139.97 | $370.95 | +$230.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.6¢ | $166.53 | — | -$166.53 | |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 44.7¢ | $364.59 | — | -$364.59 | 35% 850-1583 (2433) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 57.8¢ | $286.94 | $422.66 | +$135.72 | 52% 1710-1607 (3317) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.7¢ | $142.44 | $422.66 | +$280.22 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.8¢ | $144.5 | — | -$144.5 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 49.7¢ | $265.7 | $334.65 | +$68.94 | 45% 902-1084 (1986) |
BO bosona | Upavg 53.7¢ | $253.15 | $317.4 | +$64.25 | 51% 4973-4711 (9684) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 52¢ | $204.36 | $244.52 | +$40.16 | 52% 5230-4894 (10124) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 50.5¢ | $237.48 | $236.15 | -$1.33 | 51% 2609-2462 (5071) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 74.2¢ | $258.43 | — | -$232.03 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 57.8¢ | $164.27 | $214.82 | +$62.73 | 53% 1027-927 (1954) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 50.5¢ | $163.28 | $208.82 | +$60.04 | 54% 4698-4075 (8773) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $194.98 | $199.97 | +$4.99 | 51% 484-458 (942) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $98 | — | -$98 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.5¢ | $96.99 | $199.97 | +$102.99 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 39.3¢ | $84.76 | $196.14 | +$111.38 | 47% 1214-1343 (2557) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $177.88 | $182.57 | +$4.69 | 51% 903-883 (1786) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.1¢ | $82.33 | $182.57 | +$100.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60¢ | $95.56 | — | -$95.56 | |
LI Little-big | Upavg 51.2¢ | $76.76 | $150 | +$73.24 | 51% 1162-1108 (2270) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR | Downavg 49.3¢ | $116.26 | — | -$108.46 | 44% 2472-3195 (5667) |
Invested
$8,918
Value
$8.6K
PnL
+$3.12
Record
55%
542-437 (979)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$175.8
Record
44%
380-487 (867)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$192.42
Record
45%
661-811 (1472)
Invested
$3,461.8
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$34.97
Record
99%
977-7 (984)
Invested
$714.63
Value
$909.7
PnL
+$195.07
Record
59%
1185-840 (2025)
Invested
$650.69
Value
—
PnL
-$650.69
Record
47%
1208-1339 (2547)
Invested
$480.15
Value
$650.32
PnL
+$170.16
Record
52%
1724-1594 (3318)
Invested
$574.86
Value
$607.91
PnL
+$54.17
Record
50%
4682-4738 (9420)
Invested
$597.66
Value
$495.28
PnL
+$4.59
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Both legs:
Invested
$421.21
Value
$470.29
PnL
+$49.08
Record
55%
4649-3753 (8402)
Invested
$306.49
Value
$370.95
PnL
+$64.46
Record
44%
861-1087 (1948)
Both legs:
Invested
$364.59
Value
—
PnL
-$364.59
Record
35%
850-1583 (2433)
Invested
$286.94
Value
$422.66
PnL
+$135.72
Record
52%
1710-1607 (3317)
Both legs:
Invested
$265.7
Value
$334.65
PnL
+$68.94
Record
45%
902-1084 (1986)
Invested
$253.15
Value
$317.4
PnL
+$64.25
Record
51%
4973-4711 (9684)
Invested
$204.36
Value
$244.52
PnL
+$40.16
Record
52%
5230-4894 (10124)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$237.48
Value
$236.15
PnL
-$1.33
Record
51%
2609-2462 (5071)
Invested
$258.43
Value
—
PnL
-$232.03
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
Invested
$164.27
Value
$214.82
PnL
+$62.73
Record
53%
1027-927 (1954)
FairValueMachineInvested
$163.28
Value
$208.82
PnL
+$60.04
Record
54%
4698-4075 (8773)
Invested
$194.98
Value
$199.97
PnL
+$4.99
Record
51%
484-458 (942)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$84.76
Value
$196.14
PnL
+$111.38
Record
47%
1214-1343 (2557)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$177.88
Value
$182.57
PnL
+$4.69
Record
51%
903-883 (1786)
Both legs:
Invested
$76.76
Value
$150
PnL
+$73.24
Record
51%
1162-1108 (2270)
G-Penis-MonsterCTRInvested
$116.26
Value
—
PnL
-$108.46
Record
44%
2472-3195 (5667)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.6K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.9K
machine-earning
Up — $3.8K
THG.
Up — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Up — $909.7
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
Up — $650.32
asdcaxz
Up — $607.91
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Up — $470.29