Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

18 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

$-9.2K

Smart Money Signal

29 of 46 top traders (63%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up29 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares13,891

Combined PnL+$226.5

Down17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares11,361

Combined PnL$-9.4K

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.5K	$8.1K	-$23.75	55% 542-437 (979)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.7K	44% 380-487 (867)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.6K	45% 661-811 (1472)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 57.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$155.24	59% 1185-840 (2025)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 83¢	$1.0K	$957.48	-$48.3	47% 1208-1339 (2547)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83¢	$794.32	$957.48	+$163.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.4¢	$211.46	—	-$211.46
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 69¢	$940.04	$936.14	-$3.9	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69¢	$645.89	$936.14	+$290.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.4¢	$294.15	—	-$294.15
BL blue.birds	Upavg 68.9¢	$696.7	$795.14	+$128.23	52% 5230-4894 (10124)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 95.6¢	$639.52	$630	-$9.52	48% 855-924 (1779)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 69.5¢	$459.09	$439.46	-$19.64	44% 861-1087 (1948)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.5¢	$153.7	—	-$153.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.5¢	$305.39	$439.46	+$134.07
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.2¢	$573.51	$486.87	+$0.26	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
ohioism	Upavg 66.6¢	$367.89	$436.82	+$81.65	47% 2506-2778 (5284)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 74.6¢	$453.34	$463.53	+$10.19	55% 4649-3753 (8402)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.6¢	$345.98	$463.53	+$117.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.4¢	$107.35	—	-$107.35
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 76.5¢	$359.56	$273.49	-$86.08	51% 484-458 (942)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.3¢	$150.29	—	-$150.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.5¢	$209.28	$273.49	+$64.21
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 75.5¢	$352.73	$354.99	+$2.26	44% 2472-3195 (5667)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.5¢	$268.05	$354.99	+$86.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.7¢	$84.68	—	-$84.68
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 68.9¢	$343.05	—	-$343.05	51% 2246-2136 (4382)
NIULAI4CTR	Downavg 32.6¢	$294.96	—	-$294.96	31% 610-1384 (1994)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 73.4¢	$385.06	$296.13	-$88.93	47% 844-952 (1796)
BoneOhio	Upavg 58.2¢	$201.58	$280.3	+$83.72	70% 1877-817 (2694)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 64.9¢	$303.22	$308.13	+$4.91	51% 910-883 (1793)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.9¢	$199.98	$308.13	+$108.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.6¢	$103.24	—	-$103.24
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 75.8¢	$302.66	$285.49	-$17.18	51% 2609-2462 (5071)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.8¢	$216.26	$285.49	+$69.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 36¢	$86.4	—	-$86.4
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Upavg 57.3¢	$228.85	$273.14	+$44.29	48% 2582-2816 (5398)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$156.39	$273.14	+$116.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.3¢	$72.46	—	-$72.46
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 58.2¢	$246.11	$243.37	-$0.14	45% 902-1084 (1986)
OhioAIARB<$100	Upavg 66.8¢	$225.14	$190.85	-$34.29	51% 903-883 (1786)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.3¢	$97.69	—	-$97.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.8¢	$127.45	$190.85	+$63.39
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 33.6¢	$207.14	$126	-$81.14	51% 913-886 (1799)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.6¢	$108.86	—	-$108.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 78¢	$98.28	$126	+$27.72
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 88.6¢	$271.82	$190.39	-$81.43	53% 1027-927 (1954)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,500

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$23.75

Record

55%

542-437 (979)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

44%

380-487 (867)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

45%

661-811 (1472)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,091.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$155.24

Record

59%

1185-840 (2025)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,005.78

Value

$957.48

PnL

-$48.3

Record

47%

1208-1339 (2547)

Both legs:

Up$794.3283¢+$163.16

Down$211.4624.4¢-$211.46

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$940.04

Value

$936.14

PnL

-$3.9

Record

50%

4682-4738 (9420)

Both legs:

Up$645.8969¢+$290.25

Down$294.1535.4¢-$294.15

blue.birds

Invested

$696.7

Value

$795.14

PnL

+$128.23

Record

52%

5230-4894 (10124)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$639.52

Value

$630

PnL

-$9.52

Record

48%

855-924 (1779)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$459.09

Value

$439.46

PnL

-$19.64

Record

44%

861-1087 (1948)

Both legs:

Down$153.727.5¢-$153.7

Up$305.3969.5¢+$134.07

ByteBadger92

Invested

$573.51

Value

$486.87

PnL

+$0.26

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

ohioism

Invested

$367.89

Value

$436.82

PnL

+$81.65

Record

47%

2506-2778 (5284)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$453.34

Value

$463.53

PnL

+$10.19

Record

55%

4649-3753 (8402)

Both legs:

Up$345.9874.6¢+$117.55

Down$107.3535.4¢-$107.35

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$359.56

Value

$273.49

PnL

-$86.08

Record

51%

484-458 (942)

Both legs:

Down$150.2932.3¢-$150.29

Up$209.2876.5¢+$64.21

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$352.73

Value

$354.99

PnL

+$2.26

Record

44%

2472-3195 (5667)

Both legs:

Up$268.0575.5¢+$86.94

Down$84.6822.7¢-$84.68

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$343.05

Value

—

PnL

-$343.05

Record

51%

2246-2136 (4382)

NIULAI4CTR

Down

Invested

$294.96

Value

—

PnL

-$294.96

Record

31%

610-1384 (1994)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$385.06

Value

$296.13

PnL

-$88.93

Record

47%

844-952 (1796)

BoneOhio

Invested

$201.58

Value

$280.3

PnL

+$83.72

Record

70%

1877-817 (2694)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$303.22

Value

$308.13

PnL

+$4.91

Record

51%

910-883 (1793)

Both legs:

Up$199.9864.9¢+$108.15

Down$103.2445.6¢-$103.24

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$302.66

Value

$285.49

PnL

-$17.18

Record

51%

2609-2462 (5071)

Both legs:

Up$216.2675.8¢+$69.22

Down$86.436¢-$86.4

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Invested

$228.85

Value

$273.14

PnL

+$44.29

Record

48%

2582-2816 (5398)

Both legs:

Up$156.3957.3¢+$116.75

Down$72.4633.3¢-$72.46

GoodFallen

Invested

$246.11

Value

$243.37

PnL

-$0.14

Record

45%

902-1084 (1986)

OhioAIARB<$100

Invested

$225.14

Value

$190.85

PnL

-$34.29

Record

51%

903-883 (1786)

Both legs:

Down$97.6936.3¢-$97.69

Up$127.4566.8¢+$63.39

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$207.14

Value

$126

PnL

-$81.14

Record

51%

913-886 (1799)

Both legs:

Down$108.8633.6¢-$108.86

Up$98.2878¢+$27.72

wzbbb

Invested

$271.82

Value

$190.39

PnL

-$81.43

Record

53%

1027-927 (1954)

Smart Money Signal

29 of 46 top traders (63%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9c181d59...d34e39

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794776100

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $8.1K

arcsine-barrister

Down — $0

machine-earning

Down — $0

Bonereaper

Up — $1.2K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Up — $795.14

+$128.23

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Up — $630

-$9.52

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$19.64

ByteBadger92

Up — $486.87

+$0.26

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