Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Up 62%
3 arb excluded
$16.8K
$-8.8K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 52 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%35 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.6K | +$32.48 | 55% 542-437 (979) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 44% 380-487 (867) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.8K | 45% 661-811 (1472) |
TH THG. | Upavg 98.7¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$43.96 | 99% 977-7 (984) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $860.02 | -$32.19 | 52% 3952-3665 (7617) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $430.01 | $860.02 | +$442.81 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $475 | — | -$475 | |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $530.86 | $489.89 | +$6.21 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 73.7¢ | $470.61 | $484.04 | +$13.43 | 50% 4682-4738 (9420) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 67.8¢ | $319.22 | $470.5 | +$151.28 | 53% 1027-927 (1954) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 65.4¢ | $335.71 | $331.04 | -$4.67 | 59% 1185-840 (2025) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 70.9¢ | $257.12 | $266.75 | +$9.63 | 35% 850-1583 (2433) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 83.7¢ | $275.54 | $270.88 | -$4.66 | 52% 5230-4894 (10124) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 80¢ | $289.54 | $253 | -$36.54 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 40.8¢ | $135.39 | — | -$135.39 | 51% 2609-2462 (5071) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 63.1¢ | $119.29 | $122.88 | +$3.59 | 55% 4649-3753 (8402) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 26.1¢ | $197.78 | — | -$197.78 | 47% 1208-1339 (2547) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 52.1¢ | $108.08 | $207.29 | +$99.21 | 47% 1214-1343 (2557) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 54¢ | $98.65 | $166.68 | +$68.04 | 51% 2246-2136 (4382) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $87.5 | $99.98 | +$12.48 | 51% 484-458 (942) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 83.5¢ | $58.01 | $69.47 | +$11.46 | 66% 4070-2058 (6128) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 32.4¢ | $119.71 | $44.21 | -$75.5 | 44% 861-1087 (1948) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 78¢ | $34.48 | $44.21 | +$9.73 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.4¢ | $85.23 | — | -$85.23 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Upavg 81.9¢ | $72.64 | $54.99 | -$17.65 | 48% 2606-2865 (5471) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 81.9¢ | $45.04 | $54.99 | +$9.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46¢ | $27.6 | — | -$27.6 | |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $61.22 | $55 | -$3.17 | 51% 903-883 (1786) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 86.3¢ | $51.8 | $53.78 | +$3.28 | 62% 4748-2897 (7645) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Upavg 85.6¢ | $42.8 | $50 | +$7.2 | 43% 907-1217 (2124) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR | Downavg 44.1¢ | $132.73 | — | -$130.03 | 48% 2582-2816 (5398) |
Invested
$8,789
Value
$8.6K
PnL
+$32.48
Record
55%
542-437 (979)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
44%
380-487 (867)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
45%
661-811 (1472)
Invested
$3,456.04
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$43.96
Record
99%
977-7 (984)
Invested
$950
Value
$860.02
PnL
-$32.19
Record
52%
3952-3665 (7617)
Both legs:
Invested
$530.86
Value
$489.89
PnL
+$6.21
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Invested
$470.61
Value
$484.04
PnL
+$13.43
Record
50%
4682-4738 (9420)
Invested
$319.22
Value
$470.5
PnL
+$151.28
Record
53%
1027-927 (1954)
Invested
$335.71
Value
$331.04
PnL
-$4.67
Record
59%
1185-840 (2025)
Invested
$257.12
Value
$266.75
PnL
+$9.63
Record
35%
850-1583 (2433)
Invested
$275.54
Value
$270.88
PnL
-$4.66
Record
52%
5230-4894 (10124)
Invested
$289.54
Value
$253
PnL
-$36.54
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$135.39
Value
—
PnL
-$135.39
Record
51%
2609-2462 (5071)
Invested
$119.29
Value
$122.88
PnL
+$3.59
Record
55%
4649-3753 (8402)
Invested
$197.78
Value
—
PnL
-$197.78
Record
47%
1208-1339 (2547)
machinelearnedInvested
$108.08
Value
$207.29
PnL
+$99.21
Record
47%
1214-1343 (2557)
Invested
$98.65
Value
$166.68
PnL
+$68.04
Record
51%
2246-2136 (4382)
Invested
$87.5
Value
$99.98
PnL
+$12.48
Record
51%
484-458 (942)
Invested
$58.01
Value
$69.47
PnL
+$11.46
Record
66%
4070-2058 (6128)
Invested
$119.71
Value
$44.21
PnL
-$75.5
Record
44%
861-1087 (1948)
Both legs:
Invested
$72.64
Value
$54.99
PnL
-$17.65
Record
48%
2606-2865 (5471)
Both legs:
OhioAI<$100Invested
$61.22
Value
$55
PnL
-$3.17
Record
51%
903-883 (1786)
Invested
$51.8
Value
$53.78
PnL
+$3.28
Record
62%
4748-2897 (7645)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$42.8
Value
$50
PnL
+$7.2
Record
43%
907-1217 (2124)
Invested
$132.73
Value
—
PnL
-$130.03
Record
48%
2582-2816 (5398)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.6K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
Up — $489.89
asdcaxz
Up — $484.04
wzbbb
Up — $470.5
Bonereaper
Up — $331.04
ply-pm0
Up — $266.75