Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.2K

Combined PnL

$-8.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 57 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down40 traders

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares22,175

Combined PnL-$37.79

Up17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,453

Combined PnL$-8.0K

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.7K	$8.0K	+$15.3	55% 542-437 (979)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.1K	44% 380-487 (867)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.5K	45% 661-811 (1472)
TH THG.	Downavg 98.8¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$41.4	99% 977-7 (984)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 89.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$117.05	47% 1208-1339 (2547)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 96.2¢	$941.13	$978.42	+$37.29	98% 4630-97 (4727)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$950	$900.03	+$5	52% 3952-3665 (7617)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 87.4¢	$804.69	$806.45	+$1.76	48% 855-924 (1779)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 74.8¢	$781.67	$702.28	-$79.39	59% 1185-840 (2025)
machinelearned	Downavg 84.4¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$189.67	47% 1214-1343 (2557)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 83.2¢	$654.35	$588.22	-$66.13	52% 5230-4894 (10124)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$537.13	$494.9	-$5.09	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$246.46	—	-$252.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$248.13	$494.9	+$247.36
ST stepahead	Downavg 87.3¢	$549.06	$498.49	-$50.57	55% 4649-3753 (8402)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 62.5¢	$299.08	$398.63	+$99.55	44% 861-1087 (1948)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 61.1¢	$210.55	$255.14	+$53.09	45% 902-1084 (1986)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 93.2¢	$783.71	$254.53	-$53.44	35% 850-1583 (2433)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 80.5¢	$221.73	$230.35	+$8.62	49% 3684-3801 (7485)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 83.1¢	$228.26	$239.35	+$11.08	51% 2609-2462 (5071)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 84.4¢	$245.13	$205.87	-$39.26	51% 910-883 (1793)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.2¢	$71.42	—	-$71.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.4¢	$173.7	$205.87	+$32.16
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 72.1¢	$196.44	$203.92	+$14.2	53% 1027-927 (1954)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 91.8¢	$354.44	$200	-$151.19	51% 484-458 (942)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 86.5¢	$267.59	$172.19	-$95.41	47% 844-952 (1796)
NIULAI4	Downavg 93.2¢	$172.42	$170.2	-$2.21	31% 610-1384 (1994)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 64.3¢	$197.74	$163.52	+$38.92	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
AL almach	Downavg 92¢	$149.18	$160.13	+$10.94	52% 1710-1607 (3317)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,651

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$15.3

Record

55%

542-437 (979)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

44%

380-487 (867)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

45%

661-811 (1472)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,458.6

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$41.4

Record

99%

977-7 (984)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,349.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$117.05

Record

47%

1208-1339 (2547)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$941.13

Value

$978.42

PnL

+$37.29

Record

98%

4630-97 (4727)

soswald1

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$900.03

PnL

+$5

Record

52%

3952-3665 (7617)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$804.69

Value

$806.45

PnL

+$1.76

Record

48%

855-924 (1779)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$781.67

Value

$702.28

PnL

-$79.39

Record

59%

1185-840 (2025)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$1,024.61

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$189.67

Record

47%

1214-1343 (2557)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$654.35

Value

$588.22

PnL

-$66.13

Record

52%

5230-4894 (10124)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$537.13

Value

$494.9

PnL

-$5.09

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

Both legs:

Up$246.4649.8¢-$252.45

Down$248.1350.1¢+$247.36

stepahead

Down

Invested

$549.06

Value

$498.49

PnL

-$50.57

Record

55%

4649-3753 (8402)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$299.08

Value

$398.63

PnL

+$99.55

Record

44%

861-1087 (1948)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$210.55

Value

$255.14

PnL

+$53.09

Record

45%

902-1084 (1986)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$783.71

Value

$254.53

PnL

-$53.44

Record

35%

850-1583 (2433)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$221.73

Value

$230.35

PnL

+$8.62

Record

49%

3684-3801 (7485)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$228.26

Value

$239.35

PnL

+$11.08

Record

51%

2609-2462 (5071)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$245.13

Value

$205.87

PnL

-$39.26

Record

51%

910-883 (1793)

Both legs:

Up$71.4231.2¢-$71.42

Down$173.784.4¢+$32.16

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$196.44

Value

$203.92

PnL

+$14.2

Record

53%

1027-927 (1954)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$354.44

Value

$200

PnL

-$151.19

Record

51%

484-458 (942)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$267.59

Value

$172.19

PnL

-$95.41

Record

47%

844-952 (1796)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$172.42

Value

$170.2

PnL

-$2.21

Record

31%

610-1384 (1994)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$197.74

Value

$163.52

PnL

+$38.92

Record

50%

4682-4738 (9420)

almach

Down

Invested

$149.18

Value

$160.13

PnL

+$10.94

Record

52%

1710-1607 (3317)

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 57 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x09b0db97...e38e3e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794775500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $8.0K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Up — $0

THG.

Down — $3.5K

+$41.4

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.2K

-$117.05

hoodquant

Down — $978.42

+$37.29

soswald1

Down — $900.03

+$5

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down — $806.45

+$1.76

Bonereaper

Down — $702.28

-$79.39

machinelearned

Down — $1.2K

+$189.67

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